Will the Zhubei mayoral election replicate the model of Zhubei Mayor Lin Gengren in 2022? Retired scholar Lin Jianzheng exposed a premise

The election for the mayor of Zhubei, Hsinchu County, went from a blue-white tie to a blue-white split, and now everyone is going their own way. Lin Jianzheng, a retired scholar from Yangming Jiaotong University, has been observing the political ecology of Hsinchu County and City for a long time. He believes that whether the Zhubei mayoral election will replicate the Lin Gengren model of Hsinchu City in 2022, the premise is whether the votes can be transferred? And it will be the best case to observe the changes in the relationship between blue and white.

He mentioned that in the 2022 Hsinchu mayoral election, the Kuomintang nominated Lin Gengren and the People's Party nominated Gao Hong'an, and the Blue and White candidates each ran for election. However, at the end of the election, voters in the Blue camp abandoned their guarantees and the votes flowed to Gao Hong'an, which ultimately resulted in "their nominations and the voters integrating themselves." This time Zhubei was also nominated by Blue and White respectively, but before the election there were similar signs of the 2022 Hsinchu mayoral election, including Hsinchu County Deputy County Mayor Chen Jianxian publicly supporting Qiu Chenyuan of the People's Party; Zhao Shaokang attended Qiu Chenyuan's rally party on November 8, saying that he would come even if he was expelled from the party, and Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan also recorded a video to support him. In this regard, the Hsinchu County Party Headquarters stated that "Blue and White are brothers" and that standing up for Qiu Chenyuan does not violate party discipline. The Party Central Committee's Discipline Inspection Commission responded that Zhubei is not a demonstration area for Blue and White cooperation, and Zhao Shaokang must "know where to advance and retreat."

Lin Jianzheng believes that there are two differences when Zhubei wants to copy the Hsinchu City model. First, the Kuomintang has a strong candidate, but Lin Gengren is weak in 2022. Blue camp voters have long known who has a better chance; this time, the Kuomintang’s Wu Xuzhi is a local councilor who has been in business for 8 years, and blue camp supporters may not be willing to give up their guarantees. The central party’s imposition of party discipline also makes integration more complicated. Furthermore, the Kuomintang is splitting internally. After Chen Jianxian lost to Xu Xinying in the primary election for county magistrate, the two parties had a bad relationship. His strong support for Qiu Chenyuan also affected the county magistrate election, making Zhubei not only a blue-white struggle, but also an extension of the internal struggle within the blue camp. The key lies in whether the voters in the blue camp will obey the nomination of the Party Central Committee or follow Zhao Shaokang, Jiang Wanan and others. We will find out in 1128.