The report predicts that China’s commodity price index will average 132.1 points in 2026

China News Service, Beijing, November 1 (Reporter Ruan Yulin) The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "China Commodity Price Index Report (2026)" at the 2026 Commodity International Development Forum on the 1st.

The report predicts that China's commodity price index will average 132.1 points in 2026, an increase of 17.6% from the previous year. Faced with multiple shocks such as the global economic downturn, geopolitical conflicts and climate change, China's commodity market has generally shown a stable and positive trend, demonstrating strong resilience.

In terms of industries, affected by factors such as supply disturbances at the mine end, growth in demand from emerging industries and the impact of international energy supply, the non-ferrous metals, chemicals and energy price indexes rose significantly. The annual average values ​​are expected to be 162.2, 124.9 and 113.6 respectively, up 23.1%, 22.1% and 14.8% respectively from the previous year. Among them, the price of non-ferrous metals has risen sharply with the growth of industrial demand such as energy transformation, artificial intelligence and high-end equipment manufacturing; the price of energy and chemical industry has been mainly affected by the tight international oil and gas supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East and the increase in production costs.

The trend of the black price index is relatively stable. Driven by the growth of the manufacturing industry and the structural adjustment of the steel industry, the annual average value is expected to be 80.5, an increase of 2.2% from the previous year. The price indices for agricultural products and minerals fell to varying degrees, with the full-year averages expected to be 96.4 and 68.3 respectively, down 0.4% and 7.4% respectively from the previous year.

Zhou Xu, vice president of the Commodity Trading Market Circulation Branch of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, said that in the face of challenges such as the complex and changing international situation and the in-depth adjustment of the domestic economic structure, my country's complete industrial system, continuously growing industrial demand and the construction of a modern circulation system have provided important support for ensuring the smooth operation of the commodity market. At the same time, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing, the rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy and artificial intelligence are changing the demand structure of bulk commodities and becoming an important force in promoting market development.

The report also conducts special research on the correlation between China's commodity price index and macroeconomic indicators, the linkage, transmission and international influence of domestic and foreign spot prices of commodities, and the impact of the development of artificial intelligence on the commodity market.