
AI-generated summary
The market is paying close attention to the direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent inflation data and employment reports being key indicators. As a safe-haven asset, gold prices are particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations.
Gold rose slightly on Thursday (1st). (French information photo)
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] Gold rose slightly on Thursday (1st), while HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to US$4,490 and US$4,825 per ounce respectively, and said that gold may face further pressure in the short term.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,165.29 an ounce.
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U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $4,202.30 an ounce.
Data showed that U.S. inflation rose less than expected in August, and price pressures in the previous month were also revised downwards. This data lowered market expectations for an interest rate hike in October. Current market pricing shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in October is 28%, down from 45% before the data was released, and from 69% a week ago.
"It is the lower expectations for interest rate hikes that are supporting the precious metals market," said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
On the other hand, oil prices rose after China suspended exports of petroleum products, a move that could tighten fuel markets already tight due to global supply shortages and raise concerns about inflation.
"Anything that increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike will definitely dampen gold market sentiment. Further significant increases in energy prices, or any escalation in the Middle East, would have the same effect," Megg said.
Investors are currently awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for September to be released on Friday for clues on the outlook for monetary policy.
Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior market analyst at XM Trading, said: "The weakening of risk appetite and the decline in Fed interest rate hike bets have helped gold, but the short-term trend is still bearish. Gold prices may still retest the $4,000 level, especially if the non-farm payrolls report released tomorrow is better than expected."
HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts in 2026 and 2027 to US$4,490 and US$4,825 per ounce respectively, and said that gold may face further pressure in the short term, but may be close to a bottom.
In addition, HSBC expects that central banks will buy again as gold prices fall, especially considering that gold prices are approaching or falling below $4,000 an ounce.
Other precious metals trading
Spot silver rose 0.2% to $60.51 an ounce.
Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $1,707.56 an ounce.
Spot palladium fell 2.2% to $1,178.57 an ounce.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
If the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for September is better than expected, gold prices may retest the $4,000 level
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