Media person Wu Jingyi analyzes: The 2026 local elections are not just about candidates. The movement of the central political pendulum will affect the election situation in the two countries.

The 2026 local elections have entered a fierce stage. In this regard, media person Wu Jingyi said, is the political pendulum moving after the general recall? 2026 is not just a local election! With the central government warming up and the two sides turning into a fierce battle, the pressure on Han Kuo-yu has emerged, and the attack and defense of Congress may spill over to the entire Taiwan election.

Wu Jingyi said in a Facebook post that many people always think that the nine-in-one local elections are a traditional cut-throat battle of "seeing candidates, fixing the stakes, and sweeping the market." However, the latest cross-structure of big data and polls shows that the 2026 election campaign is undergoing an essential "nationalization of sectors," and the issue environment of local elections is being brought back by central politics.

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Wu Jingyi pointed out that the reason why the election situation in the two countries fluctuated violently in September was that the underlying market momentum came from the huge contrast between voters across Taiwan on "central governance" and "Legislative Yuan performance." Satisfaction with the central government hit a new high. In the latest national survey by the Taiwan Inspirational Association, satisfaction with government governance rose from 56.3% in July to 62.1% in September; those who believed that Taiwan's overall economic situation was "good" also reached 59.7%. But on the other hand, the Legislative Yuan’s satisfaction rate was only 34.8%, and dissatisfaction was as high as 63.4%. The main reasons for dissatisfaction with the Legislative Yuan are concentrated on "the opposition between the government and the opposition affects the deliberations", "partisan interests are higher than national interests" and "inefficient or delayed budget review".

Wu Jingyi continued that when the advantage of the blue and white seats in Congress was defined by voters as "confrontation for the sake of struggle and delay for the sake of boycott," this strong public resentment did not remain in the Legislative Yuan. Instead, like a high-pressure reservoir releasing water, it directly impacted the blue camp's local elections. What is truly noteworthy is not as simple as "the green camp suddenly becomes stronger", but whether the central political environment is correct. In changing the battlefield conditions for local candidates, if Fu Kunqi's strong leadership and Weng Xiaoling's controversial speeches become the focus of the new session again, the "majority arrogance" of the opposition camp may completely defeat the 1% of the two sides in close combat. New Taipei will flip the warning signal. It may not be the local candidates who will really bear the pressure, but the new session of the Legislative Yuan under the chairmanship of Han Kuo-yu.

Wu Jingyi analyzed that Hou Youyi’s governance satisfaction rate is as high as 75.4%, but Li Sichuan’s support is only 37.1%; in other words, being satisfied with the current KMT mayor does not mean that votes will be automatically transferred to the KMT successor; the KMT supporters in New Taipei City have not all returned to the blue camp. Although 59.3% voted for Li, 18.5% went to Su Qiaohui; even more fatally, as many as 60.0% of the median voters who “do not favor any party” Su Qiaohui, who has yet to express her stance, is slightly ahead of Li Sichuan's 18.8% with 19.7%. On the other hand, whether Su Qiaohui can turn the central government's recovery into local votes still depends on whether the central voters really move. When asked who would be better for the future in the mayoral election, as many as 42.0% of Taipei citizens thought "Let's change it to the DPP", surpassing the 38.0% who "let the KMT continue". Taipei voters’ fatigue over the current city government’s controversial issues such as major construction and the Dome has turned into a strong desire for a replacement.

Wu Jingyi added that the new session of the Legislative Yuan has begun. As the leader of Congress, Han Guoyu is facing great political and historical pressure. If the opposition camp continues to allow party chief Fu Kunqi to forcefully lead the ruling and opposition parties to cut throats, and legislator Weng Xiaoling frequently throws out controversial proposals that challenge mainstream public opinion, or once again uses "big budget cuts" as a political bargaining chip, the negative spillover effects of this "majority arrogance" will be directly paid for by the two mayoral candidates in the two norths.

Wu Jingyi bluntly said that the 2026 local elections will never be a closed defensive battle decoupled from central politics. Is there really a pendulum effect after the general recall? The revival of the central government's performance and economic dividends has turned the anxiety of the grassroots of the Democratic Progressive Party into a powerful mobilization force; and if the opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan continue to indulge in the arrogance of the majority and let Fu Kunqi's political calculations and Weng Xiaoling's controversial speech become the focus of Taiwan, then the "1% thriller battle" between the two countries is likely to set off a domino effect across Taiwan that will loosen the election of local chiefs in the blue camp. Han Guoyu is not only shouldering the hammer of the Legislative Yuan, but also the burden of the KMT's survival in 2026 and even 2028.