2026 NBA odds, picks, best bets, predictions, player props: Experts, model backing Heat, more on Oct. 21

After a three-game slate for the NBA Opening Night, the 2026-27 NBA season continues with an 11-game slate on Wednesday. Tonight's matchups include Timberwolves vs. Heat at 7:30 p.m. ET, Jazz vs. Grizzlies at 8 p.m. ET and Warriors vs. Lakers at 10 p.m. ET. The SportsLine Projection Model is backing Giannis Antetokounmpo's Miami era to begin well, backing the Heat to cover as 1.5-point favorites as part of NBA best bets on Wednesday. The SportsLine team of experts has also locked in NBA best bets, including player prop betting picks on Grizzlies vs. Jazz and Lakers vs. Warriors. Before locking in your Wednesday NBA picks, be sure to check out the top NBA betting picks from SportsLine's team of proven experts and the model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned nearly $19,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks since 2018, including five straight seasons of four-digit profit. The model enters the 2026-27 season off yet another huge season, including going 26-10 (72%) on top-rated spread picks at NBA betting sites. Anyone following on betting sites could have seen huge returns.

Wednesday NBA best bets (odds subject to change):

Heat (-1.5) vs. Timberwolves (-108)

Darryn Peterson, Jazz, Over 16.5 Total points + assists (-117)

Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors, Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

Combining the experts' three picks into a Wednesday NBA parlay would result in a payout of +554 (risk $100 to win $554).

Heat (-1.5) vs. Timberwolves (-108)

The Miami Heat missed the playoffs last year for the first time in seven years, losing in the Play-In Tournament despite having a winning record at 43-39. Miami was especially strong at home last season, going 26-15. This year, the Heat added Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time NBA MVP and 10-time All-Star who averaged at least 29.9 points per game in four straight seasons before last year's injury-plagued campaign. With Giannis' addition, along with veterans Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr., the model projects the Heat cover in 59% of simulations.

Darryn Peterson, Jazz, Over 16.5 Total points + assists (-117)

"This line is underselling Darryn Peterson's role for the Jazz on opening night," SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy Doug said. "The rookie will be thrown into the starting lineup, likely splitting on-ball duties with Keyonte George. This should be a game where Peterson's ability to get to the bucket and mid-range game plays well against a Grizzlies team that's weak defensively on the perimeter and plays fast. After a strong finish to the preseason, I like the rookie to start fast out of the gate."

Yaxel Lendeborg, Warriors, Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

"Yaxel Lendeborg won Summer League MVP and continued his strong play throughout the preseason, averaging 15.6 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists," SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein said. "He will start for the Warriors and likely play heavy minutes due to the absences of Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody. In two preseason matchups with the Lakers, the 24-year-old Lendeborg averaged 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists in 23 minutes. Look for the very mature rookie to get 25-30 minutes Wednesday."