2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Top Players Ranked by Established Level

The 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs are underway, and with them will come one of the most fascinating postseasons in recent years. With the old order fading -- the two-time defending Cup champ (and three-time East champ) Florida Panthers missed the field entirely -- and no obvious successor in place, the race for the Cup feels as open, and as consequential, as it has in years.

To help sort out which players might step up and make this postseason their own, let's consult the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) rankings -- my version of "all-in-one" metrics like Hockey-Reference's Point Shares. The core philosophy of GAR is to quantify a player's total contribution (across offense, defense and goaltending) relative to a replacement-level player at the same position. To ensure the metric reflects reality, it also balances total leaguewide value by position: 60% for forwards, 30% for defensemen and 10% for goaltenders.

This year's GAR leader was, unsurprisingly, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon. But not every player played exactly to their talent level the way he did this season. To account for a longer view of performance track records, I'm ranking players according to their Established Level -- a weighted three-year average inspired by Bill James. (Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player's overall average.) This gives more credit to recent dominance while also rewarding sustained excellence over time. To prevent the metric from lagging behind the league's newest stars, we also apply a value floor: No player's Established Level can be lower than 75% of their 2025-26 GAR.

With all of that housekeeping out of the way, here's our ranking of the skaters and goaltenders in the 2026 playoff field who are most capable of defining the next two months of hockey:

Note: All stats are as of April 16.

1. Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche

GAR: 2025-26: 32.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0

Three-year avg.: O: 23.0 | D: 6.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 29.2

MacKinnon is the favorite to win his second Hart Trophy in three years, though the real prize he and the Avalanche have in mind is the Stanley Cup, having won it in 2022. After the best season of his career by GAR, he'll have as good a chance to lead that run as ever.

When MacKinnon is on his game, almost nobody can match his combination of speed and skill; he even returned to his previous levels as a sniper in 2025-26 (career-high 53 Adjusted Goals) after a comparatively down goal-scoring effort a year ago.

Playoff outlook: The Avs are favored to win the Cup, whether we look at the stats or the betting market, and MacKinnon is a huge reason why. He has averaged a point per game or better every trip he has made to the playoffs, and the Avs will be heavily picked to win in Round 1, if not each subsequent series. Another date with Dallas -- always scary -- or Minnesota might loom in Round 2, but Colorado has the firepower to survive. At age 30, MacKinnon is at his peak and the time for another Cup is now.

2. Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

GAR: 2025-26: 30.2 | 2024-25: 25.9 | 2023-24: 29.9

Three-year avg.: O: 23.8 | D: 4.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 28.7

Kucherov is an automatic Art Ross Trophy threat whenever healthy, and he almost hunted down Connor McDavid with an incredible 79 points in 41 games since Jan. 1. This season was tied for his second-best single-season mark in Adjusted Goals (43) -- even if it was propped up by a career-high 19% shooting percentage -- and he maintained his unmatched passing ability as well, leading the league in assists for a third straight season. Offensively, there is little Kucherov can't do.

Playoff outlook: The Bolts will face a talented Montreal squad right away in the East bracket, but Kucherov should get plenty of his own numbers against a Habs defense that ranked 16th in goals allowed and 18th on the penalty kill. With Buffalo or Boston lurking next, Tampa Bay might not face a top-10 defense until the conference finals, if they make it that far.

3. Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers

GAR: 2025-26: 29.7 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4

Three-year avg.: O: 21.4 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.2

Healthy for an entire season for the first time since 2022-23, McDavid returned to Victory Lane in the NHL's scoring race with 134 points. (He either scored or assisted on 49% of Edmonton's goals this season.) With his combination of speed, scoring ability and vision, McDavid is the long-running gold standard that even talents such as MacKinnon and Kucherov measure themselves against.

Playoff outlook: The Oilers are in a bit of a different position than usual, not being favored to win the West despite having done so in each of the past two NHL seasons. That being said, McDavid has piled up basically a full season's worth of points -- 33 goals and 128 points in 75 games -- over the past four postseasons, so it would be silly to count out his ability to carry Edmonton in spite of its No. 26 ranking in goal prevention.

4. Cale Makar, D, Colorado Avalanche

GAR: 2025-26: 22.9 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9

Three-year avg.: O: 17.6 | D: 7.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.3

Even though he probably won't win a second straight Norris Trophy (Columbus' Zach Werenski is highly favored) -- and his value numbers regressed exactly to what they were before last year's career-best 30.1 GAR -- Makar continues to be the league's most dynamic offensive defenseman from both a skating and a production standpoint.

The only area where Makar's numbers slipped was in Colorado's possession rate when he was on the ice; the team's share of shot attempts at 5-on-5 was 3.7% lower with Makar in the game versus not.

Playoff outlook: Makar has a Conn Smythe on his résumé from that 2022 Cup run, but he has also averaged less than a point per game in two of his past three playoff campaigns. So he's in need of a good postseason, particularly considering Colorado's title aspirations. Up against the Kings in Round 1, Makar's comparison point will be an opposing blue line that ranked just 22nd in GAR and produced very little on offense.

5. Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers

GAR: 2025-26: 27.0 | 2024-25: 19.4 | 2023-24: 24.1

Three-year avg.: O: 15.9 | D: 8.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 24.0

Bouchard leveled up this season from an elite offensive D-man for the current era to have one of the most productive seasons we've ever seen from the back line. His 90 Adjusted Points were just behind Brian Leetch in 1991-92 for the top 20 ever by a defenseman in a single season, and he narrowly trailed Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi and Makar for the most since Paul Coffey in the mid-90s.

And for any complaints about Bouchard's all-around game, contrast his effect on the Oilers' puck possession against Makar's number earlier: Edmonton's share of shots at 5-on-5 was 7.8% better with Bouchard on the ice.

Playoff outlook: Like McDavid, Bouchard has been insanely productive in recent postseasons, with 17 goals and 72 points in 59 games over the past three playoffs. Edmonton will be reliant on his booming shot and elite quarterbacking ability to keep their top-ranked power play rolling.

6. Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers

GAR: 2025-26: 21.7 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3

Three-year avg.: O: 19.3 | D: 4.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 23.7

Rounding out the three-headed monster that powered Edmonton's sixth-ranked offense, Draisaitl missed out on an eighth consecutive season with 100 or more Adjusted Points because of injuries that cost him 17 games -- including the final month of the regular season.

If healthy, Draisaitl is an offensive machine who commands outsized defensive attention because of his quick release and ability to shoot or pass from both the forehand and backhand. With a +5.3% on-ice shot attempt share differential, he continued to drive play at a higher rate than earlier in his career.

Playoff outlook: The biggest postseason question mark for Draisaitl is how soon he can return from his lower-body injury. With apologies to Zach Hyman (who had 9.5 offensive GAR), the Oilers are so dependent on their top trio of McDavid, Bouchard and Draisaitl -- who combined to generate 61.7 of the team's 88.2 offensive GAR -- that any interruption in availability could disrupt the offense (and PP) that must carry their hopes for a third straight West crown.

7. David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins

GAR: 2025-26: 17.2 | 2024-25: 22.2 | 2023-24: 24.9

Three-year avg.: O: 17.5 | D: 2.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.1

The Pasta Man missed games for the first time in a few seasons, and his adjusted production fell from 43 goals and 106 points a year ago to 28 goals and 97 points in 2025-26.

Even so, he hit the unadjusted century mark for scoring and led Boston skaters in GAR as the Bruins returned to the playoffs after a one-season hiatus. One of the game's premier wingers, Pastrnak's continued production was made more impressive when you consider his supporting cast at forward wasn't what it used to be.

Playoff outlook: The Bruins have a bit of a tall order going up against a Buffalo squad that returned to the playoffs with a vengeance, ranking No. 5 in Hockey-Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) as well as my own Elo ratings. In addition to the goaltending of Jeremy Swayman, Pastrnak's offensive magic is essential for any chance at the upset.

8. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, Tampa Bay Lightning

GAR: 2025-26: 19.7 | 2024-25: 28.7 | 2023-24: 2.9

Three-year avg.: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 19.9 | Total: 19.9

Like clockwork, Vasilevskiy was once again one of the top netminders in the league, helping Tampa Bay rank No. 3 in fewest goals allowed and No. 8 in save percentage. While he also enjoyed a sturdy D corps in front of him, despite Victor Hedman going on long-term injured reserve, make no mistake: Vasilevskiy is the backbone of the Bolts' rejuvenated Cup hopes.

He has started almost 300 games over the past five seasons and earned a Quality Start designation in nearly two-thirds of them.

Playoff outlook: Simply put, the Lightning will go as far as Vasilevskiy takes them. Montreal is a dangerous first-round foe because of its offense, led by Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson -- but nobody feels better about the goaltending it will counter with than Tampa Bay, which can send a two-time Cup-winner up against the Habs in net.

9. Jason Robertson, F, Dallas Stars

GAR: 2025-26: 22.4 | 2024-25: 16.6 | 2023-24: 16.7

Three-year avg.: O: 15.3 | D: 4.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.5

After a couple of years' worth of muted production -- not bad, mind you -- relative to his big 2022-23 breakout, Robertson got back to a more elite statistical level in 2025-26 with 44 Adjusted Goals and 93 Adjusted Points. One of the keys was a return to greater shot volume: He went from averaging 2.57 shots per game last season to a whopping 3.59 this season, his most since posting 3.82 in that stellar 2022-23 campaign.

Robertson is now squarely in his prime at age 26, and he's one of the biggest reasons for Dallas' success at both ends of the ice.

Playoff outlook: The Wild are a very tough opponent for Dallas right out of the gates, so a lot will be asked of Robertson to bolster the Stars' advancement odds. He has never been a gaudy postseason stat-producer -- he has 18 goals and 44 points in 56 career playoff games -- but Robertson will need to drive offense while also staying defensively responsible against a Wild offense led by Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy.

10. Martin Necas, F, Colorado Avalanche

GAR: 2025-26: 23.4 | 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 9.9

Three-year avg.: O: 14.2 | D: 4.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.0

After years of good but hardly superstar-level output in Carolina, Necas' move to the Avalanche in last year's midseason Mikko Rantanen trade unlocked an entirely new level of production for the Czech forward. This season in particular, Necas absolutely shattered his previous career adjusted-stat highs with 38 goals, 61 assists, 99 points and 23.4 GAR. His speed and puck control allow him to deliver game-changing plays in the blink of an eye.

Playoff outlook: It remains to be seen how much of Necas' glow-up can translate to the playoffs, as the vast majority of his previous postseason track record (just 12 goals and 35 points in 66 games) came before his recent level-up. The first-round opponent Kings will be looking to turn the series into a defensive struggle, not a track meet.

11. Quinn Hughes, D, Minnesota Wild

GAR: 2025-26: 15.0 | 2024-25: 20.6 | 2023-24: 26.5

Three-year avg.: O: 13.2 | D: 5.6 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.8

Between injuries and a big midseason trade, Hughes ended up with one of his worst seasons -- just 15.0 adjusted GAR -- in recent memory, a far cry from the 26.5 he generated in 2023-24. But he did increase his production after leaving a difficult situation in Vancouver for the playoff-bound Wild.

Beyond the big-picture stats, Hughes remains a major difference-maker when it comes to logging huge ice time (27:54 of ice time per game post-trade) and controlling the flow of possession; his teams have always had a significantly higher share of shots when Hughes is on the ice, and Minnesota was no different.

Playoff outlook: The 2025-26 Wild are one of the best and most talented teams in franchise history, and Hughes is a big reason why. They drew a tough first-round matchup versus Dallas, whose own blue-line corps (Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Thomas Harley) can give Hughes a run for his money. But Minnesota hasn't escaped Round 1 in 11 years, and Hughes is specifically here to stop that streak.

12. Jack Eichel, F, Vegas Golden Knights

GAR: 2025-26: 19.2 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 13.7

Three-year avg.: O: 13.4 | D: 5.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.6

Eichel's stats were just a little bit off his pace from a year ago, but still, few forwards in the league blend skating and playmaking with his balance and strength on the puck.

One of Eichel's few knocks has been too much unselfishness, but he looked for his own shot more this season (3.51 shots per game versus 3.03 last season) even if his goal total didn't reflect it. Broadly speaking, whatever the problems were that led Vegas to make one of the latest in-season coaching changes ever, Eichel was instead among the team's solutions.

Playoff outlook: Having said that, Eichel had his worst month by points per game (four goals and six assists in 16 games) in March, coinciding with the slide that cost ex-coach Bruce Cassidy his job. Under new head man John Tortorella in April, Eichel had 12 points in seven games, so there's reason to think he can stay hot under new leadership in the playoffs.

13. Jake Guentzel, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

GAR: 2025-26: 18.1 | 2024-25: 18.6 | 2023-24: 16.8

Three-year avg.: O: 14.3 | D: 3.8 | G: 0.0 | Total: 18.1

Guentzel turned in roughly a carbon copy of his first season with Tampa Bay, increasing his assists while shooting the same amount (even if his conversion rate -- and power-play scoring -- dipp