Legislative Yuan Hanguo-yu recently performed unscripted at the National Day ceremony. He not only mentioned the recall and the political dispute between the government and the opposition, but also elaborated on the ideological differences among the people, saying that "some Taiwanese want to turn Taiwan into the 31st province of China." People from all walks of life were in an uproar. In this regard, scholar Shen Rongqin analyzed that this move not only targets the 2028 position, but also warms up the power chaos within the KMT after the nine-in-one general election at the end of the year. A storm under the blue camp over the post-election party power and succession planning has quietly taken shape.
Shen Rongqin posted on Facebook today (12th) that Han Kuo-yu performed unscripted in the second half of his National Day speech and suddenly transformed into the president of the KMT Legislative Yuan. He criticized Lai Qingde and Zhuo Rongtai in a high-profile manner. The green camp criticized Han Kuo-yu for losing the height of the president in front of foreign guests. The famous speaker pointed out that Han Kuo-yu was targeting the 2028 presidential election. However, he believed that another possibility was that Han Kuo-yu was warming up for the possible chaos of the KMT after the end of the year election.
Shen Rongqin pointed out that according to current polls, the DPP has a chance to win in Chiayi City, Yilan, Changhua, and Hsinchu counties, and the most important ones in Taipei City and New Taipei City are five to five. "If the Kuomintang loses Taipei City or New Taipei City at the end of the year, which is equivalent to a major defeat, will Party Chairman Cheng Lai-wen take political responsibility and resign?" With Cheng's consistent personality, she will never resign. Her remarks are roughly as follows: "First, the KMT chairman's term is four years, and she has no reason to resign. 20 When the Kuomintang lost the presidential election in 2024, Zhu Lilun also refused to resign for the same reason. Second, the Kuomintang did not suffer a huge defeat. Ma Ying-jeou resigned in the past nine-in-one elections because the Kuomintang really suffered a huge defeat, with less than half of the seats. This time, although the Kuomintang lost several counties and cities, it still had a majority."
"Third, it is not her responsibility to lose Taipei City or New Taipei City. She went to Taichung, Kaohsiung, and Tainan to campaign for KMT candidates, but even Jiang Wanan and Li Sichuan deliberately distanced themselves from him. She does not need to be responsible for losing both cities. Fourth, she has indirectly stated in advance that even if the KMT is really defeated, she will at most ask the vice president or secretary-general to step down. Not only will she not resign, but she will also target the 2028 presidential election."
Shen Rongqin pointed out that since the election of the current Congress in 2024, the blue and white legislators have launched the most intense political party struggle in history. From unconstitutional expansion of powers, blocking a number of constitutional institutions such as the Chancery Council and the NCC, to refusing to review the budget, since Taiwan's democratization, even in the past moments of black-money legislators, there has never been such a chaos of demons. Strangely, since the beginning of this session, everything in the Legislative Yuan has returned to normal, with legislators discussing, questioning, and reviewing bills as usual. This is the lowest reporting rate since the current legislator took office.
Shen Rongqin continued that the Kuomintang Legislative Yuan caucus not only demanded that the legislators return to normal, but also restricted the speech of Weng Xiaoling, who has always been arrogant. The Judiciary and Legal Affairs Committee would rather give the appointment to Chen Zhaozi of the People's Party than to let Weng Xiaoling take the position. All this is to avoid affecting the year-end election. The legislators of the People's Party also resumed normal discussions because the Kuomintang returned to normal and Xiaolan did nothing to cause trouble.
Shen Rongqin said bluntly that since 2024, Taiwanese people will have a normal parliament for the first time, but they don’t know whether after the election, the Kuomintang will think that the shelf life has expired and it will return to the era of chaos. We need to have a relatively normal Congress after the election, and we also need to ask the voters of Taipei City and New Taipei City to vote well. The only one who remains abnormal is party chairwoman Cheng Lai-wen. She is still accepting an exclusive interview with Japanese media at this time, repeating that the DPP upholds Taiwan's subjectivity, causing Taiwan to lose its dominance. She implies that Taiwan should give up upholding Taiwan's subjectivity and cooperate with Xi Jinping's arguments.
Shen Rongqin believes that Lu Xiuyan refused to run for KMT chairman because she thought she was bound to win the presidential nomination. However, Zheng Liwen was given the opportunity to come forward and become Xi Jinping's agent in Taiwan, which caused a lot of trouble for herself. Chiang Wanan was the first to take the lead. He thought that the mayor of Taipei was digging into the bag, talking about changing cabinets at the beginning of the election, and seizing the leadership of the parade to pave the way for the president. It is a pity that his mediocre qualifications were exposed to the voters, and the tide rose, so that Jiang Wanan no longer dared to show his ambition to covet the big position. However, some well-known figures in the blue camp have publicly stated that if Zheng Liwen resigns, Jiang Wanan should take over as party chairman.
Shen Rongqin analyzed that as for Han Kuo-yu’s National Day speech regarding the party’s stance, it shows that he is also concerned about the party chairman. But in fact, the most positive person is Lu Xiuyan, but she is ducking in the water and does not show ambition. "Nikkei Asia" revealed that Lu Xiuyan has secretly made friends with many party legislators. Although the Kuomintang legislators did not have the courage to openly oppose Fu Kunqi and Weng Xiaoling, they also knew that Lu Xiuyan was a powerful figure who wanted to be in power and formed an alliance. Lu Xiuyan will step down as mayor next, and party chairman has also become an option. This means that if the Kuomintang performs poorly in the year-end elections, Cheng Lai-wen will refuse to resign. There will be infighting and infighting within the Kuomintang, but all this is not for the party chairman, but a frontline battle for the 2028 presidential election.
