On Sunday, all eyes will turn to the Camp Nou stadium, where Barcelona will host its rival, Real Madrid, in a Clasico match that carries exceptional competitive and tactical dimensions, amid the clear superiority of the Catalan team in the recent confrontations, and the attempts of the Portuguese Jose Mourinho to rebuild the defensive system of the Madrid team, after two consecutive seasons without achieving a major championship.
According to an extensive report published by “The Athletic”, Barcelona enters the confrontation leading the Spanish League, six points ahead of Real Madrid, after achieving nine consecutive victories since the beginning of the season, equaling the record for the best start in the history of the competition, which Real Madrid recorded in the 1968-1969 season, while it needs a tenth victory to break the historical record.
The Catalan team scored 39 goals during its nine matches, compared to nine goals it conceded, in numbers that reflect the offensive power it enjoys under the leadership of German Hansi Flick, who led Barcelona to win six of the last seven confrontations against Real Madrid in various tournaments.
Barcelona is looking for its third consecutive title in the Spanish League, after strengthening its ranks during the summer by signing Englishman Anthony Gordon and Spaniard Rodri, who preferred to move to the Catalan club rather than join Real Madrid, after leading his country to the World Cup title and winning the best player award in the tournament.
Flick relies on an offensive system that includes Lamine Yamal and Rafinha, who now plays the role of the outright striker, along with Karim Adeyemi, Gordon, and Fermin Lopez, while Pedri and Rodri form a key axis in controlling the tempo of the matches, and providing a balance between possession and offensive transitions.
Despite the distinguished results, Barcelona faces defensive challenges before El Clasico, most notably absences and injuries, as the absence of Eric Garcia and Dani Olmo has been confirmed, while doubts loom over the readiness of Frenchman Jules Kounde.
The confrontation comes after Barcelona's loss to Paris Saint-Germain, 4-2, in the Champions League, last Tuesday, a result that put the team before an important test of its ability to quickly regain its balance.
Flick had given Rodri a relative rest against the Parisian team, before introducing him in the sixtieth minute, coinciding with the exit of Pedri and Rafinha, amid expectations that the trio would start against Real Madrid.
On the other hand, the Madrid team enters the match amid a transitional phase under the leadership of Mourinho, who returned to coach Real Madrid last June, after President Florentino Perez decided to use him again to end the period of failures that witnessed the absence of major tournaments for two years in a row.
Real Madrid suffered from fluctuating results at the beginning of the season, after losing to Real Betis, then Atletico Madrid with a score of 2-1, before regaining some of its confidence with an exciting victory over Roma with a score of 4-3 in the Champions League, after being behind by three goals to one.
The last four matches witnessed technical transformations in the team, most notably the move of Uruguayan Federico Valverde to the right-back position, and the increased role of Turkish Arda Guler in the midfield, in addition to the brilliance of Ivorian Yann Diomande, who joined last August in a deal worth up to 140 million euros.
Diomande benefited from the absence of Brazilian Vinicius Junior due to a four-match suspension, while Frenchman Kylian Mbappe regained a large part of his offensive level, in an attempt to compensate for the technical differences that appeared between the two teams during previous confrontations.
Defensive numbers stand out as one of the biggest challenges facing Mourinho, after Real Madrid lost six of the last seven official matches against Barcelona, during which they conceded 24 goals, despite Mbappe scoring six goals in those confrontations.
The Portuguese coach is working to change the style of defensive pressure that the team previously adopted, when it was positioned without the ball in a 4-4-2 manner, with Mbappe and Vinicius in the front line, which is the method that allowed Barcelona to easily overcome the pressure and reach the spaces between the Madrid team’s lines.
Previous confrontations showed Pau Cobarci's ability to pass balls between the lines, taking advantage of the movements of Pedri, Olmo and Fermin Lopez, which exposed Real Madrid's midfield and forced its defenders to deal with repeated attacks.
In an attempt to address these gaps, Mourinho began adopting a 4-2-3-1 method during off-ball pressing, directing his players to advance more aggressively when the opponent takes goal kicks or returning the ball back, and relying on individual monitoring to close off passing options.
The features of this transformation appeared during the confrontation with Leipzig, when the attacking quartet advanced to put pressure on the German team’s defenders, while Eduardo Camavinga and Bernardo Silva moved forward, with Dean Huysen advancing from the back line to close the spaces and impose direct pressure on the ball carrier.
This method gives Real Madrid a greater opportunity to regain the ball in advanced areas and create spaces for Jude Bellingham, Mbappe and Diomande, but it carries defensive risks if the players do not move in sync, especially against a team that possesses the speed of attacking transitions that Barcelona enjoys.
Flick, in turn, faces a challenge in dealing with the expected Madrid pressure, as Barcelona relies on a very advanced defense line, which makes it vulnerable to balls behind defenders, in addition to its suffering in some situations related to set pieces.
Historically, the Clásico record reflects the extent of the rivalry between the two clubs, after each team achieved 106 victories in official confrontations, compared to 52 draws, in a rare balance that extends since the first confrontation between them in the Spanish League in 1929.
Argentine Lionel Messi holds the record for El Clásico goals with 26 goals in 45 matches, while the history of the confrontations witnessed notable milestones, including Barcelona’s 5-0 victory in 1974 under the leadership of Johan Cruyff, and a repeat of the result in 2010 under the leadership of Pep Guardiola, in addition to Real Madrid’s victory at Camp Nou in 2012 with a decisive goal from Cristiano Ronaldo.
At the level of expectations, the majority of the technical analyzes presented by seven of the newspaper’s writers favored Barcelona’s superiority, as five of them predicted a victory, compared to two who favored a draw, and none of them expected a Real Madrid victory.
Barcelona's victory predictions ranged between 3-1 and 5-1, while the draw predictions were 2-2 and 3-3, an indication of confidence in the Catalan team's offensive strength, while continuing doubts about Real Madrid's ability to address its defensive problems.
These data put Mourinho before an important test in his return to El Clásico, as he seeks to break the series of negative results against Barcelona, and reduce the gap at the top of the league, while Flick looks forward to strengthening his superiority over the traditional rival, and achieving a tenth consecutive victory that gives his team a new record in the history of the competition.
The Negrera case returns to the forefront of the conflict between Real Madrid and Barcelona before the upcoming El Clásico match, on Sunday, after the accusations and criticism related to Spanish arbitration escalated, at a time when the Madrid club’s supporters are awaiting developments in investigations related to financial payments made by Barcelona to companies linked to a former official in the referees’ committee, amid the belief among some that sanctions against the Catalan club are now a matter of time.
According to a report published by “The Athletic”, the issue became a main focus in Real Madrid’s media discourse, which intensified its criticism of Spanish arbitration, and linked a number of controversial decisions to the file of payments amounting to 8.4 million euros, which Barcelona made between 2001 and 2018 to companies controlled by José María Enríquez Negrera, the former vice president of the referees’ committee of the Spanish Football Federation.
The case came to light in February 2023, when Spanish Radio Cadena Ser revealed Barcelona's payments to one of the companies linked to Negrira, before the judicial investigations expanded to include former and current officials at the club.
Barcelona and Negrira repeatedly denied committing any violations, stressing that the money was paid in exchange for reports and consultations related to professional arbitration, while club president Joan Laporta stressed, during a press conference in April 2023, that Barcelona did not engage in any activity aimed at changing the results of competitions or obtaining an illegal sporting advantage.
The judicial investigations included statements by Laporta and former presidents Josep Maria Bartomeu and Sandro Rosell, as well as former coaches Luis Enrique and Ernesto Valverde, and a number of administrative officials.
Javier Tebas, President of the Spanish League, explained that the League cannot impose sports sanctions due to the statute of limitations for potential violations in accordance with sports regulations, while the possibility of prosecution remains in accordance with the Criminal Code.
In June 2023, UEFA investigators decided not to impose sanctions on Barcelona, which continued to participate in the Champions League, despite ongoing investigations into the case.
The dispute between the two clubs escalated when Laporta described Real Madrid as “the regime’s team,” in reference to the period of General Francisco Franco’s rule between 1939 and 1975. The official channel of the Madrid club responded with a video clip that included old statements by its historic president, Santiago Bernabéu.
At first, Real Madrid president Florentino Pérez seemed cautious in criticizing Barcelona, especially during the period of cooperation between the two clubs within the European Super League project, before his tone clearly changed.
During a press conference last May, Perez confirmed that referees from the Negrera era were still officiating matches in the Spanish League, announcing the preparation of a comprehensive 500-page file to be sent to the European Football Association.
Real Madrid's official channel has become a major platform for criticizing referees, as it constantly recalls previous arbitration decisions and links them to the case, especially before major matches or following negative results.
After Real Madrid lost to Atletico Madrid 1-2 in September, the club’s official website published a report entitled “A disastrous refereeing performance decides the derby,” while the television channel’s analysts escalated their criticism of the referees.
The controversy extended to Spanish media, including “El Debate”, “OK Diario” and “El Espanyol”, in addition to the television program “El Chiringuito”, which repeatedly addressed accusations of arbitration bias against Real Madrid.
One of the articles published in “El Dipaté” sparked a sharp disagreement with Tebas, after the president of the Spanish League likened Real Madrid’s media strategy to the propaganda methods used by Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi Minister of Propaganda, which prompted the Madrid club to demand his dismissal.
In a related context, a number of analysts, influencers, and Madrid fans launched a website called “Negrira Gate,” which collects refereeing statistics and presents historical comparisons that its administrators believe support the allegations of Barcelona benefiting from the referees’ decisions.
Lawyer Juan Luis Martín de Pozuelo, one of the website's founders, said that the discovery of Barcelona's payments to a prominent official in the arbitration system made many Real Madrid fans feel that they had been deceived, especially during seasons in which their team succeeded in Europe without achieving the Spanish League title.
Portuguese Jose Mourinho, Real Madrid coach, brought up the issue again during a television interview last August, stressing that he felt there were abnormalities in the arbitration decisions during his first period with the team between 2010 and 2013, even though he did not know Negrera at the time.
Mourinho's criticism continued during the current season, as he attended a press conference after one of Atletico Madrid's matches carrying papers containing arbitration cases that he considered deserved red cards against the opponent's players.
He also criticized the timing of the announcement of the penalty to suspend Vinicius Junior for 4 matches, after his expulsion against Villarreal, considering that the issuance of the decision two hours before an important European match against Roma raises questions.
The protest atmosphere extended to the stands of the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium, where fans chanted slogans accusing the Spanish Federation of corruption, and the club’s fans raised a banner bearing the phrase “It is not football... it is Tebas and Negrera.”
During the 4-1 victory over Seville, chants were heard accusing Laporta of continuing to push, while Arda Guler's failure to punish him for a possible elbow intervention in one of the shots sparked controversy among Barcelona supporters.
At the European level, the European Football Association announced in early October that it had received the file that Perez promised to send, explaining that the documents would be subject to evaluation by ethics and disciplinary inspectors as part of the ongoing investigation.
Barcelona responded that the European Union had not opened new procedures against it, stressing that the announcement related to the ongoing investigation, and not to the start of an independent case.
Although some Madrid circles expect Barcelona to be excluded from the European Championships, no official indicators have been issued confirming the imminent imposition of sanctions, while the European Union has refrained from commenting on the details of the investigation until a decision is issued by the competent disciplinary authority.
As for the Spanish judicial investigation, which began in March 2023, it is still in the stage of collecting evidence and hearing testimonies, with sessions set for mid-November to hear Gerard Lopez, the former Barcelona player and coach of the reserve team between 2015 and 2018, and Antonio Alonso, the former official in one of the stadiums.
In another development, Barcelona began legal proceedings against Perez, accusing him of making defamatory statements during his press conference in May, and set November 25 as the date for a reconciliation session, threatening to file a criminal complaint if the Real Madrid president does not publicly retract his statements.
These developments place the upcoming “Clásico” under an exceptional microscope, as arbitration decisions have become part of a conflict that goes beyond sporting competition, amid a clear division between the fans of the two clubs regarding the truth of the issue and its possible repercussions.
Although investigations are continuing in Spain and the European Union, Barcelona's responsibility for fixing the results of the matches has not yet been proven in a final judicial ruling, nor has a European decision been issued to exclude it from competitions, which makes the circulating expectations about the downfall of the Catalan club or its punishment linked to the results of procedures that have not yet been decided.
