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Back俄軍噴射無人機量增挑戰烏克蘭防空體系
俄軍噴射無人機量增挑戰烏克蘭防空體系
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自由时报1 hour agoWorld2 min readChinaView translation

俄軍噴射無人機量增挑戰烏克蘭防空體系

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俄羅斯近期大量使用高速噴射動力無人機襲擊烏克蘭,8月發射數量達2800架,幾乎是7月的兩倍。這些無人機飛行速度達每小時400-600公里,高度可達5-7公里,使烏克蘭原本攔截率超過90%的低成本防空網效能降至約60%。基輔空襲警報頻繁,烏克蘭國家安全局總部曾遭擊中,總統澤倫斯基呼籲加快研發高速攔截無人機並整合多層防禦,估計建立有效反制能力需時最長六個月。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

俄烏衝突持續,俄羅斯近期改變無人機戰術,大量使用噴射動力無人機以提升突防能力。烏克蘭此前依賴低成本防空系統對抗傳統無人機攔截率超過90%,但新型無人機飛行更高更快,現有體系效能顯著下降。

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烏克蘭首都基輔展示的無人機攔截系統,俄軍新型噴射無人機正考驗烏軍既有防空能力。(法新社)

〔編譯陳成良/綜合報導〕俄羅斯近期大量使用高速噴射動力無人機攻擊烏克蘭,8月發射數量估計達2800架,較7月的約1500架幾乎翻倍。法新社9日報導,這批無人機的速度與飛行高度都高於傳統機型,使烏克蘭原本可攔截逾9成傳統無人機的低成本防空網,面對新型機種時攔截率降至約6成。

法新社指出,俄軍6月使用的噴射無人機只有數百架,7月增至約1500架,8月進一步攀升至2800架;烏克蘭空軍發言人表示,傳統內燃機、螺旋槳無人機的摧毀率超過90%,但噴射無人機目前約只有60%。這類無人機採用小型噴射引擎,飛行高度可達5公里,速度約每小時400至600公里,最快可達早期型號的3倍。

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烏克蘭軍事媒體與顧問公司《防務快報》(Defense Express)近期分析,俄軍大量使用的包括「天竺葵-4」(Geran-4)與「天竺葵-5」(Geran-5)噴射動力無人機。該公司指出,這兩型武器的飛行高度已高於部分烏克蘭短程防空系統的有效攔截範圍,部分飛行甚至達到約7公里。

這些武器的體型也比早期「見證者」(Shahed)系列更大,長約6公尺、翼展約5.5公尺,最多可攜帶90公斤炸藥。法新社引述烏克蘭軍事分析人士說法指出,從防空角度來看,這類高速噴射無人機的特性已更接近巡弋飛彈,而非傳統低空慢速無人機。

飛得更高又更快 烏軍廉價防空網遇考驗

這波攻擊也開始影響基輔日常生活。法新社指出,首都近期一天最多響起十多次空襲警報,商業活動與學校受到干擾,地鐵服務也受到限制;日前位於基輔歷史市中心的烏克蘭國家安全局(SBU)總部,更在白天遭噴射無人機擊中。

面對新威脅,烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基已要求加快高速攔截無人機研發,目前已有原型機投入測試。烏克蘭「防務快報」負責人茲古列茨(Sergiy Zgurets)向法新社表示,烏軍不能只依靠更快的攔截無人機,還需要整合航空兵力、地對空武器、電子戰,以及打擊俄羅斯境內的發射與生產設施;他估計,建立有效反制能力可能需要最長6個月。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 烏克蘭將在未來六個月內完成高速攔截無人機的測試並開始部署

    Likely · Within months

  • 烏克蘭將整合航空兵力、地對空武器與電子戰以提升防空效能

    Very likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 烏克蘭何時能部署有效的高速攔截無人機原型機?
  • 西方盟友是否會提供更先進的短程防空系統以應對噴射無人機?
  • 俄羅斯噴射無人機的生產與發射基地位於何處,烏克蘭能否有效打擊?

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