
德国《法兰克福汇报》评论指出,德国长期批评中国贸易失衡与补贴,但自身汽车工业同样依赖政策支持,如今面临中国电动车冲击时却转向贸易保护,显得虚伪;文章称真正出路在于提升自身竞争力而非设贸易壁垒,并引用《新苏黎世报》观点认为西方对中国稀土的自给自足是幻想,应聚焦提升自身吸引力。
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德国长期以汽车出口闻名,曾被称世界出口冠军,但因内需不振和欧元被低估导致贸易顺差,近年面临中国电动车竞争加剧,德中贸易逆差可能超千亿欧元。
(德国之声中文网)《法兰克福汇报》评论指出,与其抱怨中国的政府补贴以及汇率优势,德国提升自身竞争力才是当务之急。这篇题为《德国实在太虚伪》的评论写道:
“曾有人对这个国家赞不绝口,称之为世界出口冠军。也有人对这个国家提出批评,认为这里进口太少,贸易失衡过于严重。除了内需不振,这里的货币还被低估,这也使该国出口产品在国外变得更加便宜。出口给该国的汽车行业带来了巨大的收益,而政府对汽车行业的参与也明显超过其他行业。该国很多就业岗位都同汽车工业相关,这本身并不符合市场经济的教义。作为经济大国,这个国家对来自外界的批评一向置之不理,而是理直气壮地回应道;我们的汽车就是比竞争对手更胜一筹。
这个故事适用于二十一世纪00年代的德国,同样也适用于二十一世纪20年代的中华人民共和国。也正因为如此,德国政府表现出的截然不同的态度更为引人关注。上周的欧盟峰会之前,德国和法国政府联合呼吁欧盟委员会,把自由贸易搁置一旁,而应将欧盟内部市场的准入当作地缘政治武器。毕竟,现在德国汽车工业处境艰难,而廉价中国电动车的到来更是雪上加霜。汽油价格高企的当下,中国电动车受到了欧洲消费者的热捧。
从早年的重商主义,到今天的特朗普,自由贸易的所有反对者都喜欢重复这样的老腔调:出口者赢,进口者输。只是和以往不同的是,这一次陷入贸易失衡另一方的德国也加入了这个大合唱。在相当长的时期内,德国政府一直都在宣扬自由贸易,这其中汽车工业当然也功不可没,毕竟他们担心销售市场的流失。现在风向彻底发生了变化。亲雇主的德国经济研究所表示,2026年,德中贸易逆差有可能会超过一千亿欧元,而德国曾经的三大出口支柱更是首当其冲:汽车、电子和机械制造。”
《法兰克福汇报》评论指出,构建贸易壁垒其实并不能为相关行业延长寿命,却会剥夺德国消费者自由选择以及获得性价比更优产品的权利:
“当然,欧盟为了在贸易战中有备无患,设立反制工具,这本身无可厚非,例如应对中国再度限制稀土出口的情况。人为压低的汇率确实为中国带来了益处,中国也确实应当提升国内消费,这些都是毋庸置疑的。但是,偏偏德国以此为论据,要求实施贸易壁垒,就显得有些虚伪了。
声称竞争对手的生存全凭政府补贴的说法,显然早已过时了。事实上,那些正在冲击世界市场的中国新型企业对低息国家贷款的依赖程度远远低于老企业。根据中国智库CF40的统计,新行业中政府补贴在盈利中的占比已经明显下降。或许,欧洲是时候接受这样一个事实了:一个每年培养出上百万工程师的国家,其产品注定更具创新性。德国为什么不从培养人才入手呢?”
”稀土自给自足只是一厢情愿的幻想“
西方各国已意识到在稀土等关键原材料领域对中国的高度依赖,于是乎,美国、英国和欧盟都相继推出了各自的稀土战略。不过,《新苏黎世报》评论认为,自给自足只是一厢情愿的幻想:
“我们因为自身的过错而陷入了危险的依赖。西方必须转变思想,才能吸引投资:民众必须接受为获取稀土而开矿和冶炼,政府必须减少那些阻碍投资的繁文缛节,而企业为了获得供货安全,则必须情愿支付更高的价格。
但尽管如此,自给自足也只能是幻想。咨询公司安永发布的一份调研显示,在2050年前实现同中国脱钩,需要累计付出23万亿美元的代价。相比之下,实现部分的自给自足更为重要,西方尤其应当提升自身竞争力,只有这样才能让中国重新依赖西方。无论是过去,还是将来,相互依赖都是避免冲突的最佳保障。”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
德国将在未来几个月内对中国电动车实施反补贴税
Likely · Within months

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