Xi Jinping purges the Communist Army. Scholars: Senior generals have been hollowed out and are not qualified to attack Taiwan.

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, has launched a large-scale purge of the Communist Army in recent years. Lin Heli, a senior China observer and researcher at the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank, said today that the Communist Army originally had about 33 to 34 generals, but now only about 4 to 5 are left. With the top generals severely hollowed out and insufficient equipment, the Communist Army currently does not have the conditions to launch a war against Taiwan.

Lin Heli attended the lecture "Xi Jinping and China's Future: Outlook from the Fifth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to the 21st Party Congress in 2027" today. He pointed out that under normal circumstances, the People's Liberation Army has about 33 to 34 generals, but currently there are only 4 to 5 generals left, including Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Shengmin, Defense Minister Dong Jun who was born in the navy, Eastern Theater Commander Yang Zhibin, who was born in the Air Force, and Central Theater Commander Han Shengyan. He believes that Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has severely weakened the power of the People’s Liberation Army.

He also said that the number of members of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China has been greatly reduced from 7 to 2, with only Chairman Xi Jinping and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin of the Central Military Commission remaining. According to the practice of the CCP, the 21st National Congress of the CCP to be held next year will establish a new personnel layout of the Central Military Commission; however, due to the purge of a large number of high-level generals, Xi Jinping is facing huge difficulties in reorganizing the Central Military Commission.

Lin Heli said that there are predictions from the outside that the People's Liberation Army may attack Taiwan between 2027 and 2029, but he believes that the war against Taiwan will be a "national mobilization operation" that requires hoarding food in major cities in China and fully mobilizing the people and reserve troops. Judging from the current lack of manpower and equipment at the top levels of the People's Liberation Army, the Communist Army currently does not have the conditions to launch a war against Taiwan.

He bluntly said, "This is good news for Taiwan." However, the People's Liberation Army's "gray zone" intrusions around the Taiwan Strait will continue.

Lin Heli also pointed out that Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign may have backfired on him. For example, the fallen former Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia remains quite popular among PLA generals. Television footage reported by the media earlier showed that Li Zuocheng, former chief of staff of the Central Military Commission's Joint Staff Department, appeared at the China National Day reception. Because of Li Zuocheng's close relationship with Zhang Youxia, Li Zuocheng's appearance suggests that Xi Jinping's ongoing anti-corruption crackdown may have prompted opposition forces within the party and the military to unite against him.