U.S. experts have observed that there is a high possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump will try to use the transfer of wartime operational control, which the South Korean government is pursuing as a goal during President Lee Jae-myung's term, as an opportunity to withdraw U.S. troops stationed in Korea.
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, said in a podcast interview hosted by CSIS on the 13th (local time), "There is a story that President Trump views the transfer of wartime operational control as a means of withdrawing U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula. It is a story raised with considerable credibility."
Chairman Cha said, "There may be a National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that sets a lower limit (28,500 troops) for U.S. forces stationed in Korea, but there are other ways (for President Trump to bypass the NDAA). The president is the commander-in-chief of the military," and added, "If the president strongly decides on a specific goal, there are ways to implement it."
He emphasized, "We should have no illusions that the U.S. president will not think that way. He clearly sees this (OPCON transfer) as a way to withdraw U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula."
Randall Schreiber, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security, said, "I 100% agree that President Trump is likely to view the transfer of wartime operational control as a means of withdrawing or reducing U.S. forces," adding, "It's President Trump's instinctive judgment on this issue."
Former U.S. Ambassador to Korea Mark Lippert, who conducted the conversation, predicted that if the transfer of wartime operational control is pursued, "President Trump may want to withdraw troops," and that "others may use this as an opportunity to constructively discuss the alliance's direction."
Vincent Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea and ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, recalled, "There is an impatience in the Korean government to end this issue within President Lee's term," and added, "I heard the same thing during the Moon Jae-in administration."
Former Commander Brooks asserted, “There are concerns (on the Korean side) that this issue has been discussed for over 20 years and the standards for achievement goals are constantly changing, but such claims were not true in the past and are not true now.”
Former Commander Brooks said, “We should not pick only the favorable conditions (for OPCON transfer) and say, ‘We are ready, so we can transfer right now.’”
He then pointed out that it was "very disappointing" that Minister of National Defense Kang Shin-cheol recently said that all "three conditions" necessary for the transfer of wartime operational control have been met and that "the transfer is possible right now."
He criticized Minister Kang's remarks, saying, "It's the same as saying that college students can graduate today even if they haven't completed the required courses and passed the final exam."
There are calls to disband the ROK-US Combined Forces Command and form a 'parallel' command system after the OPCON transfer, but he pointed out that it is less solid than the current integrated command system and is likely to cause confusion and danger, emphasizing that "in wartime, we should not form an organization centered on sovereignty, but rather form an organization for victory."
Experts predicted that the results of the midterm elections, in which the U.S. Democratic Party overwhelmingly controlled both houses of Congress, and the fact that the U.S. Department of Commerce was deeply involved in the recently revealed scandal of former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could also act as a variable in Korea-U.S. security and trade relations.
Former Assistant Secretary Shriver predicted that "there will be some personnel changes" among Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, whom the Democratic Party is seeking to impeach, and Commerce Secretary Howard Rutnick, who was involved in the Nvidia scandal.
Chairperson Cha predicted, “The 120th Congress may attempt to regain some of its authority over tariffs (from the executive branch).”
He said, "You may argue that there has not been much progress in the first place, but the situation will become more difficult in the future" in the Korean government's aggressive efforts to advance into the shipbuilding industry, build nuclear-powered submarines, enrich uranium, and secure the authority to reprocess spent nuclear fuel.
The reason is, “If the Democratic Party controls both the House and the Senate, there will be a fairly strong nuclear non-proliferation camp in Congress,” he explained. “They will be much less active on these issues than President Trump or the Republican lawmakers who support him.”
