‘26.2%→88.9%→100%’… Samsung, overturning the odds, is on the verge of winning the Korean Series

The odds of winning the Korean Series, which fluctuated in every game, finally tilted completely in favor of the professional baseball Samsung Lions.

Samsung, which seemed to be on the defensive after losing the first game, turned the situation around with three straight wins and was only one win away from regaining the throne for the first time in 12 years.

In Game 4 of the 2026 Shinhan SOL KBO Korean Series (KS, 4 wins in 7 games) against KT Wiz held at Samsung Lions Park in Daegu on the 7th, Samsung won 10-5 with 11 long and short hits and 12 walks and walks.

As a result, Samsung gained an absolute advantage in the series with 3 wins and 1 loss.

In this series, the winning probability indicated by historical data fluctuated dramatically with each game.

At the starting line, KT, which went straight to first place in the regular season, had an overwhelming advantage.

In the Korean Series (35 times) based on a single season in history, the probability that the team ranked first in the regular season won the overall championship was 85.7% (30 times), and the probability that the team that went through the playoffs (PO) reached the top was only 14.3% (5 times).

When KT won 8-7 in the first game in Suwon on the 3rd, the trend seemed to be going as expected.

In the past Korean Series, the probability that the team that won the first game lifted the championship trophy was 73.8% (31 out of 42, excluding the draw in 1982).

The probability of being left behind for Samsung, who came up against the KIA Tigers in a fierce battle in the 5th PO game and even lost the first game, was only 26.2%.

However, Samsung began to shake up the game in the second game on the 4th.

Starter Chris Fedek's fighting spirit, allowing 1 run in 7 innings, and an opponent's error in the top of the 12th inning of extra innings allowed the team to score the final run and win 3-2, ending the series at 1 win and 1 loss.

Then, in the 3rd game on the 6th, which was played in Daegu at home, the team won 5-1 thanks to starter Ariel Jurado's excellent pitching, allowing 1 run in 7 innings, and the odds were flipped in Samsung's favor.

In previous Korean series, the team that took the third game after going 1-1 lost won the final championship 16 times out of 18 times, soaring the probability to a whopping 88.9%.

Samsung, riding on the momentum, showed off its firepower by scoring 6 points in the first inning in Game 4 on the 7th, taking the lead to 3 wins and 1 loss.

In the past Korean Series, there was only one case where a team that was ahead by 3 wins and 1 loss failed to win the final, in 2013 with the Doosan Bears.

Coincidentally, it was Samsung who overturned the 1-3 deficit at the time and achieved the only comeback victory in history.

In particular, if we narrow it down to a case like Samsung this year where they lost the first game and then won games 2 to 4 to make it 3 wins and 1 loss, the probability of winning is 100%.

All six teams, including the 1989 Haitai Tigers, which had 3 consecutive wins after one loss, the 2001 Doosan, the 2008 SK Wyverns, the 2015 Doosan, the 2017 KIA, and the 2023 LG Twins, all ascended to the throne without exception.

Samsung, which has reached the summit by erasing unfavorable odds one by one, aims to end the series in Game 5 to be held at Samsung Lions Park in Daegu at 2 p.m. on the 8th.

On the contrary, KT, which fell into a 3-game losing streak after winning the first game, is now in a position to challenge the only 'overturn of 1 win and 3 losses' achieved by Samsung in 2013.