KMT Chairman Cheng Lai-wen returns to Taiwan from visit to the United States. Experts analyze year-end election strategy

KMT Chairman Cheng Li-wen (middle) previously stated that after returning to Taiwan from the United States, the KMT will formally launch regular meetings in action and go deep into various counties and cities to assist in the election. (Provided by the Kuomintang)

KMT Chairman Cheng Lai-wen has concluded her two-week visit to the United States. Cheng Lai-wen previously stated that after returning to Taiwan from the United States, the KMT will formally launch regular meetings in action and go deep into various counties and cities to assist in the election. In this regard, Zhang Yuanxiang, an adjunct assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Soochow University, analyzed that in the year-end county mayor and assembly elections, the strongest hens in the blue camp are of course Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan, Legislative Yuan Han Guoyu, and Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan, who are nationally famous and prestigious. However, it is impossible for the candidates to separate from the Kuomintang or Cheng Liwen. Experience in past elections shows that deliberate separation by generals may not win over the middle voters. Instead, they will end up offending the fundamentalists who are left but not right.

Zhang Yuanxiang pointed out that it may be true that Cheng Lai Man will not become the "strongest hen" in the blue camp at the end of the year, but it is not fair either. The chairperson of a political party, especially the chairperson of an opposition party, has to stand firm in supervising and balancing the ruling party, and is even at the forefront of political conflicts. For candidates who need to win over half of the votes, "Mary Cheng can appeal to the basic supporters of the blue camp, but it is of limited help in winning over the middle voters." She will never be elected relying solely on the support of fundamentalists. "The biggest function of the party chairperson is to be a trader, not a platform."

Zhang Yuanxiang said that in the county mayor and councilor elections at the end of the year, the strongest hens in the blue camp are of course the nationally known and prestigious Jiang Wanan, Han Guoyu, and Lu Xiuyan. However, it is impossible for the candidates to separate from the Kuomintang or Cheng Liwen. Past election experience shows that deliberate separation by the generals may not win over the middle voters. Instead, they will end up offending the fundamentalists and offending the fundamentalists.

Zhang Yuanxiang said that Cheng Lai-wen's effect is actually a matter of line. Whether the KMT can tear off the political label of "pro-China and sparsely American", judging from the results of Cheng Lai-wen's visit to the United States, the effect is limited. However, local elections are based on "political territory", "candidate conditions" and "local issues offensive and defensive" (such as traffic jams in Neihu). The impact of US-China-Taiwan issues is limited. The biggest challenge to Cheng Lai-wen's route is the 2028 presidential and legislative elections.