Analysis: After the midterm election, Trump focused more on diplomacy and approved arms sales to Taiwan before early next year

The results of the U.S. midterm elections have been finalized, with the Democratic Party strongly winning control of both houses of Congress. American scholars analyzed today that U.S. President Trump may focus more on foreign policy after his Republican Party loses its majority in Congress; Trump is expected to approve the US$14 billion arms sales to Taiwan before early next year.

The United States held midterm elections on the 3rd. According to the latest statistical estimates from the Associated Press tonight, the Democratic Party has won 54 seats in the Senate and 253 seats in the House of Representatives respectively, firmly holding a majority. The outside world is paying attention to how this "blue wave" (blue is the representative color of the Democratic Party) will affect Trump's policy direction in the next two years.

Michael Cunningham, a senior fellow on the China Initiative at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, responded to a question from a reporter from Central News Agency via email today, saying that Trump does not need to seek re-election. After the Republican Party loses its advantage in Congress, his ability to implement domestic policy priorities will be more restricted.

Kong Mingshang analyzed that this means that Trump "may focus more on foreign policy, and he still has considerable autonomy in this field."

The U.S. Constitution gives the president authority over foreign affairs. Kong Mingshang pointed out that Trump firmly believes that his actions against Iran are necessary and that he can win as long as he persists to the end. Therefore, although he admits that the US-Iran war has a great impact on the results of the midterm election, he has not yet shown the willingness to change course.

Trump teamed up with Israel to launch a war against Iran in February, which led to soaring oil prices, which is seen as one of the main reasons for the Republican Party's defeat.

On the other hand, Kong Mingshang said that the support for Taiwan from both parties in the U.S. Congress is very strong. After the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, the strongest backlash against Trump's interactions with China will be in various committees, such as the House of Representatives' "Special Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China."

He pointed out that if the committee remains in the new Congress, Democrats may use it as a tool to criticize Trump for being weak toward China, including opposing Trump's conciliatory measures toward China.

Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), also believes that once the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, committees can investigate Trump's policies toward China and Taiwan and exert other forms of political pressure. However, Trump has the power granted by the Constitution and still has room for autonomy in foreign policy.

As for the US$14 billion arms sales to Taiwan that are yet to be approved by the Trump administration, Kong Mingshang expects that Trump will approve it before the beginning of 2027, regardless of whether there is pressure from Congress. Trump and his government officials very much hope that Taiwan will increase its defense budget, and they know that this can only be achieved if the United States is willing to provide a pipeline for weapons purchases.

He said that although Trump appears to be less concerned about public criticism than many previous US presidents, public pressure from Congress will still increase the cost of his continued delay in arms sales.

Ruizhe, who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, also said that since Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have the opportunity to meet four times this year, Trump is cautious in the timing of arms sales to Taiwan.

He expected that once these "four meetings" are over and the Democratic Party officially takes control of Congress in January next year, "the atmosphere surrounding arms sales (to Taiwan) may usher in a new change."

Following the summits in Beijing in May and Washington in September, Trump and Xi are expected to meet again at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, in November, and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami, Florida, in December.