The Central Bank of Iraq confirmed that there is no financial liquidity crisis in the country, announcing the imminent arrival of a new shipment of cash dollars from the United States within one to two weeks, as part of upcoming shipments with a total value exceeding one billion dollars, at a time when it revealed that its foreign currency reserves had risen to about 81 billion dollars.
Advisor to the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq and spokesman for the bank, Mahmoud Dagher, told the Rudaw media network on Sunday that a new shipment of dollars will arrive in Iraq within a period between one and two weeks, explaining that the bank has completed its preparations and made the necessary transfers via the SWIFT system, and that the value of the upcoming shipments will exceed one billion dollars.
Regarding allowing the sale of the dollar at the official price to travelers through the Kurdistan Region’s airports, Dagher explained that the Central Bank allows each traveler to buy two thousand dollars at the official rate, up to 6 times annually, but implementing this mechanism through the region’s airports requires completing administrative and technical arrangements with the relevant authorities.
He added that the bank will follow up on the issue and will issue a final decision regarding it within the next two days.
Evaluating banks that are deprived of dealing in dollars
Regarding the possibility of issuing new directives from the US Treasury Department regarding Iraqi banks that are prohibited from dealing in dollars, Dagher said that the Central Bank has not yet received any new instructions in this regard.
He explained that the bank is awaiting the results of the report prepared by Oliver Wyman regarding the steps and reforms implemented by these banks, indicating that the US Treasury will determine its next steps based on the results of this evaluation.
Regarding the delay in sending the budget schedules to the House of Representatives, Dagher attributed this to the creation of 3 new ministries in the government, which required re-determining their financial allocations, including employee salaries and operational and investment expenses.
He said that these changes led to amending the draft law and delaying its sending to Parliament somewhat, stressing at the same time that employees’ salaries for next year are “fully insured.”
Internal debt amounts to 117 trillion dinars
Dagher revealed that the internal public debt owed by the government amounts to 117 trillion dinars (about 77 billion dollars), compared to about 10 trillion dinars (6.6 billion dollars) of external debt, according to the latest figures registered with the Central Bank.
He denied the existence of any crisis or shortage of financial liquidity, stressing the increase in the bank’s foreign currency reserves, which reached about 81 billion dollars, driven by the arrival of October’s revenues.
At a time when the main indicators of the global economy, from growth to trade volume, appear more resilient than expected, a set of pressures are accumulating in the background that may test the ability of economies to continue this performance over the next year, with the rise in the cost of borrowing, increasing government debt burdens, and continuing pressures of living, in addition to the challenges related to artificial intelligence and escalating customs duties.
The World Economic Forum monitors five main files that are likely to remain at the forefront of the economic scene during the coming period, based on the results of its latest report, “Expectations of Leading Economists,” and what was reported by the International Monetary Fund in the “World Economic Outlook” report issued last October.
This analysis comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy, despite the flexibility it has shown, may soon face a test of the ability of this flexibility to continue, in light of trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, rising government bond yields, and increasing pressures on public finances in a number of major economies.
Higher borrowing costs
The high cost of borrowing is emerging as one of the main challenges facing governments, with government bond yields increasing in a number of major economies, indicating the high return that investors demand in exchange for financing governments and bearing the risks of their debts.
The yield on standard US government bonds had exceeded 5 percent, recording its highest levels since 2007, while Japanese bond yields reached their highest level since 1996, and their French counterpart reached levels not recorded since 2002, while the German yield approached 2009 levels.
The International Monetary Fund links the rise in returns to the return of inflationary pressures and concerns about the sustainability of public finances, noting that the repercussions of these developments are not limited to advanced economies, but rather extend to lower-income countries, which in turn face greater difficulty in obtaining financing.
Higher yields increase the cost of issuing new debt and refinancing existing obligations, which puts more pressure on government budgets and limits the resources available for spending on services and investments.
Accumulation of government debt
The problem is not related to the cost of borrowing alone, but rather to the amount of debt that governments have already accumulated, in light of the expansion of spending on multiple priorities, from defense and infrastructure to health care, pensions, and social welfare allocations.
Countries such as Poland and Germany have increased their defense spending in response to a more turbulent international environment, while Japan and China face increasing costs associated with aging populations. In Britain, health care expenditures and social welfare benefits have risen, while public debt has doubled since the global financial crisis to reach about 70 percent of GDP, before reaching 95 percent during the “Covid-19” pandemic, a level to which it is still close.
The International Monetary Fund warns that stabilizing public debt levels will likely not be achieved unless governments modify the policies they currently intend to implement, calling for any financial support necessary to avoid social unrest to be temporary and carefully targeted.
Expectations of senior economists at the forum indicate that highly indebted governments may not have the same ability to support their economies when a new global shock occurs, which increases the importance of achieving real productivity gains in the private sector, rather than increasing reliance on government spending.
The high cost of living puts pressure on families
The high cost of living represents a third challenge, which is not limited to the currently recorded inflation rates, but extends to the accumulated increases in the prices of goods and services over the past years, which continue to burden families, especially low-income ones.
The International Monetary Fund indicates that the sudden rises in the prices of basic needs in several regions of the world were more severe for the lowest-income families, while the Iranian war-related increases in the prices of food and the fuel used to transport it added more pressure.
The repercussions do not stop at the decline in purchasing power, as cost-of-living crises can lead to social unrest and push governments to adopt measures that are not necessarily consistent with traditional economic recommendations.
In this context, the forum’s report pointed out the impact of rising prices on real wages, that is, the value of income after accounting for inflation, noting that they have declined significantly during the current year in a number of advanced economies.
In the United States, real wages for workers in non-managerial jobs have remained almost stable; The average real hourly wage rose from $9.81 in August 2020 to $9.94 in August 2026, an increase of no more than 13 cents over 6 years.
Artificial intelligence...opportunities and risks
Artificial intelligence constitutes a fourth challenge, with increasing bets on its ability to raise productivity and stimulate economic growth, while there are questions about the amount of jobs that will be created by the huge investments in the infrastructure necessary to operate it, and the social and economic repercussions of expanding its use.
The forum's survey of senior economists showed expectations of an increase in the contribution of artificial intelligence to productivity during the coming period, but they expressed less optimism about the number of direct jobs that infrastructure projects, such as data centers, will create. They also expected an escalation in societal objections to the establishment of these facilities.
There are fears of over-reliance on artificial intelligence as a major driver of markets and growth, especially with a large portion of investments concentrated in technology-related sectors, at a time when the effects of these transformations on jobs are still unresolved.
The report also points out that the artificial intelligence boom itself contributes to increasing the cost of borrowing, as companies that issue bonds to finance their huge investments in electronic chips and data centers compete with governments to attract investor money, which may make financing governments more expensive.
Customs duties are an ongoing reality
The fifth challenge is that customs duties have become a continuous feature of trade policies, after the wave of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump raised widespread concerns about their impact on global trade and supply chains.
Although the impact of the American measures was not as severe as some economists expected, companies redirected a large portion of their trade to alternative destinations, while the stated goals of these duties, most notably enhancing local production and reducing dependence on foreign goods, are still far from being fully achieved.
The International Monetary Fund indicates that the rollback of some of the high US tariffs announced last year, along with companies redirecting their trade routes, has limited some of the repercussions, but customs duties still constitute a burden on global trade. The Fund reduced its expectations for growth in global trade volume to 4.6 percent this year, compared to about 5 percent last year.
On the other hand, senior economists whose opinions were polled at the forum expect that customs duties in Europe will increase over the next year, coinciding with the expansion of the European Union’s trade deficit with China, approaching one billion euros per day.
They also expected tariffs to rise in the United States, in light of continuing trade tensions, including renewed disputes with Canada. Although the Trump administration views tariffs as a tool to reduce the trade deficit, the latest US data showed the widening of this deficit, reflecting the continued difficulty of achieving this goal.
These five files reveal overlapping pressures facing the global economy. The high cost of borrowing and the accumulation of debt limit the ability of governments to intervene, while the cost of living pressures families, the artificial intelligence boom raises questions about the distribution of its gains and costs, while tariffs continue to reshape international trade paths.
