TSMC’s legal statement attracts global attention! Foreign media revealed the biggest test. If you want the stock price to skyrocket, you must first pass this test.

TSMC will hold a legal meeting this afternoon (15th). The picture shows Chairman and President Wei Zhejia. (Bloomberg file photo)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] TSMC will hold a press conference this afternoon (15th). Foreign media reports pointed out that when the world's major chip companies have delivered eye-catching financial reports, but failed to boost AI concept stocks, the market's expectations for TSMC are "very high." It must perform well enough to surprise investors to have a chance to drive a positive reaction in the stock price.

As of 10:33 Taipei time today, TSMC (2330) stock price fell by 50 yuan, or 2.01%, to 2,440 yuan.

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"Bloomberg" reported that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has lost more than $1.5 trillion in market value in the past six trading days due to concerns about interest rate trends, sources of funding for AI construction, and whether the chip industry's business cycle can continue.

TSMC has announced its third-quarter revenue in advance, with an annual increase of 51%. The full financial report is scheduled to be released today. However, the recent outstanding results of Samsung Electronics and ASML Holding NV have not been able to effectively alleviate the market's doubts about chip stocks.

Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L Echiquier, said the market's expectations for TSMC "are very high." He believes that in order to drive a positive reaction to the stock price, TSMC must perform beyond market expectations and cannot just rely on financial reports to be better than expected.

TSMC’s capital expenditure in 2027 is also the market focus. "Bloomberg" reported that foreign investors' estimates of TSMC's capital expenditures in 2027 continue to be revised upwards. Goldman Sachs currently estimates it will reach US$85 billion, and UBS estimates it at US$90 billion, both higher than the average estimate of US$75 billion by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

JP Morgan's sales department noted in a report to clients this week that capital expenditures remain one of the market's top concerns, and TSMC may continue to emphasize that the company is committed to meeting customers' undelivered backlog of orders.

On the other hand, whether TSMC can maintain profitability while expanding investment and increasing production capacity has also attracted market attention. Analysts predict that TSMC's gross profit margin will reach 66.5% in the third quarter, close to the upper edge of the company's financial forecast range, but slightly lower than the historical high reached in the previous quarter.

Christophe Leroy, co-chief investment officer and head of investment services at Swiss bank CBH, said that compared with the past, this semiconductor boom cycle has lasted quite a long time and is a positive sign. However, the industry still has cyclical changes after all, and investors must evaluate whether the current stock price valuation has sufficient fundamental support.

Xiadong Bao, fund manager of French Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, pointed out that all aspects of the AI ​​ecosystem must operate smoothly. TSMC must not only prove strong market demand, but also must show that the execution progress is in line with expectations.

TSMC's stock price hit a record high earlier this month, becoming one of the first chip stocks in the world to hit a new high after the stock market plunged in July. However, in the past week, market doubts about the source of AI funding have increased, and TSMC has also been dragged down by the pullback of overall chip stocks. Against this background, TSMC's financial reports and forecasts will be subject to strict scrutiny, and the market hopes to confirm whether the growth prospects of the semiconductor industry are still solid.

James Ooi, market strategist at Tiger Brokers, said that a major focus of observation in TSMC’s financial report is whether the company is more optimistic about the duration and scale of AI demand. He pointed out that if TSMC revise its AI accelerator revenue forecast or further explain the scale of the supply and demand gap in advanced chip manufacturing, it is expected to be viewed positively by the market.

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