China inaugurates its first air facility in Laos: military expansion or diplomatic message?

China's inauguration of a joint air facility in Laos this week - its first outside its borders - was a message from Beijing regarding the expansion of its military presence, according to analysts.

Beijing has long sought to consolidate its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, in competition with Washington and its allies over key shipping routes and seabed resources. It has also expanded its military presence, especially in the South China Sea, most of which it claims.

During the era of President Xi Jinping, China, the second economic power in the world after the United States, sought to modernize its army, increasing defense spending, and intensifying pressure on the autonomous island of Taiwan, which it considers part of its territory, and pledged to annex it, even by using force.

Until now, Chinese military facilities outside the borders were mostly naval bases, but on September 30, China and Laos opened the “Joint Aviation Training and Support Center” at the Ban Kiun Air Base north of the capital, Vientiane.

Joshua Kurlanczyk, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at the Council on Foreign Relations, says that this center is “China’s first air base abroad.”

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, it is likely that China will establish more of these bases in the region and in other friendly countries later. He says that China “will not build one base in Laos and then stop.”

China and Laos, which are ruled by a communist regime, explained that the new center aims to train Laotian Air Force pilots.

The Chinese Ministry of Defense added that the facility would be maintained by “both parties to ensure normal operations,” saying that the site did not target any third party.

Security affairs researcher Colin Koh says that China is “trying to show that it is able to expand in the field of defense diplomacy,” at least with “countries that are receptive” to it.

Training pilots from China, Laos' largest creditor, will require the deployment of military assets, whether transport aircraft or modern fighters. According to Koh, this means moving “from training to military presence.”

Despite the rivalry between the two superpowers, Chinese military spending does not exceed about a third of the United States, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its military footprint abroad is small compared to that of Washington, which has hundreds of bases around the world.

China launched its first foreign base in 2017 in Djibouti, which is strategically located in East Africa near the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The site expanded to include an advanced signal weapon facility, which prompted France and the United States to consider moving their bases to avoid Chinese eavesdropping, according to Kurlanczyk.

China also funded the development of the Ream naval base in its ally, Cambodia, located on the Gulf of Thailand. Last year, the two parties launched a joint logistics and training center.

Washington says the base, which was originally built partly with American funding, could give Beijing a strategic location not far from the South China Sea. While two Chinese anti-submarine frigates have been docked in its port for long periods, American and Japanese ships have also visited the base since its redevelopment.

In contrast, the new center in Laos will likely only be used by the militaries of the host country and China, according to Koh.

He explains that the facility may be a suitable “stopover” for Beijing’s air force, and Chinese personnel may be deployed there. He adds: “We cannot rule out the deployment of combat assets in the region under the name of training the Laotian Air Force.”

The two parties did not reveal details about the personnel or military equipment at the site.

The United States and its partners in the region, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are likely to monitor any signs of military reinforcement.

The US Department of Defense said last year that Beijing may have studied the possibility of establishing military facilities in about 20 countries, most of them in Africa and Asia, but Laos was not included in that list.

For his part, an expert in Asian military affairs, Karl Thayer, calls for not to overestimate the importance of the new facility, explaining that the “Pan Keun” site can currently only deal with light aircraft and military training aircraft.

He believes it is unclear whether any Chinese military presence in Laos will appear permanent or well-equipped.

He says: “There is Chinese progress... but there is no crisis at the moment,” explaining that the new facility in Laos “is not Djibouti, and it is not Ream (in Cambodia), but it represents a change.”

As for Laos, which suffers from a lack of development, the new facility provides it with military training, equipment, financial incentives, and most importantly, stronger ties with Beijing.

Kurlanczyk believes that “the benefit for Laos is that it keeps China satisfied.”