Li Haoyu. (AFP)
[Sports Center/Comprehensive Report] Tiger Lee Hao-yu from Taiwan faced a strong resurgence against the Rockies today. He hit 3 long hits and scored 3 RBIs in a single game, breaking out of the pre-game slump of having no hits in 4 consecutive games. Rogelio Castillo, a reporter for the National Baseball Writers Association and who follows the development of Tiger Farm, wrote a long article stating that Li Haoyu’s performance today will make the Tigers have to think about whether to regard him as the number one starting second base candidate in 2027 in the winter.
Castillo said bluntly that of course one game should not decide who will be the second baseman next April, but after accumulating nearly 300 at-bats and getting opportunities to play in the infield for a long time, for the Tigers, it is not whether Li Haoyu is qualified to stay in the major leagues, but whether he is qualified to stay in the major leagues. Whether he has shown enough strength to directly take over the second baseman position, Castillo also gave the answer: "I think the answer is yes, but there is a key premise. He is indeed in the lead, but he has not yet reached the point where the second base position can be directly handed over to him."
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After today's explosion, Li Haoyu scored 72 hits in 275 hits this season, including 15 doubles, 2 triples and 8 home runs. His hitting measurements were .262/.321/.418 and his offensive index was 0.739. Castillo said that this kind of performance should not be mistaken for center hitter-level firepower, but Li Haoyu does not have to meet that standard to become a daily starting second baseman. This is the 23-year-old's first major league season, and some advanced data shows that his hitting still has room for improvement.
Castillo pointed out that as of today's pre-game data, Lee Haoyu's batting velocity this season is 89.8 miles, hard-hit rate (Hard-Hit) 41%, and barrel rate (barrel) 8.5%. In comparison, the major league averages are 88.6 miles, 37.1%, and 7.6%. Li Haoyu's fastest batting velocity even reached 112.2 miles. Although Li Haoyu's overall expected data, such as the expected batting average of 0.230, the expected slugging rate of 0.389, and the expected weighted on-base percentage of 0.299, are not eye-catching, Li Haoyu has proven that even if he is only 175 centimeters tall, he is still capable of hitting the ball with more force than expected.
Of course, Li Haoyu also has the problem of missing. This season's strikeout rate of 24.6% is higher than the major league average of 22.2%. Castillo pointed out that Li Haoyu is not the kind of second baseman who relies on a high batting rate and hits the ball to all corners of the field. His future hitting value will, to some extent, depend on whether he can continue to improve his home plate discipline while maintaining his batting power.
Castillo said that to discuss whether Li Haoyu has improved, we can't just look at the cumulative data for the whole season. If we look closely at August, Li Haoyu hit .276/.364/.414, 66 games, 8 walks, and 0. 10K, attack index 0.778; there was a lot of disparity in his performance in September, with only 3 hits in 26 at-bats, but 7 walks made his batting average only 0.115, and his on-base percentage remained at 0.303. Today's resurgence of firepower has allowed Li Haoyu to score 22 hits in 89 at-bats since August, with 16 walks, a batting average of 0.247, an on-base percentage of 0.362, and an offensive index of 0.755.
Castillo bluntly said that he would not describe Li Haoyu as being in a long-term hot state, but what is really interesting is his swing speed. His average swing speed before August was 71.2 miles, "Fast-swing" Rate" (the proportion of swings with a speed of at least 75 miles) was 19.1%, and the swing path length was 7.1 feet. From August 2 to September 9, Li Haoyu's average swing speed increased to 72.1 miles, the "Fast-swing Rate" increased significantly to 27%, and the swing length shortened to 6.9 feet. This means that Li Haoyu successfully improved the power of his swing without lengthening the trajectory of his swing.
However, Castillo also pointed out another aspect of the above data. Li Haoyu's squared-up rate (which measures the hitter's ability to hit the ball firmly into the center) was revised down from 39.3% to 32.8%, his ideal attack angle (Ideal Attack-Angle Percentage) dropped from 57.3% to 51.5%, and his "Blast Rate" (top swing speed + squared-up rate) only increased slightly from 15.1% to 16%. In other words, Li Haoyu's increase in swing speed does not automatically translate into more overall batting quality, but this is normal for a 23-year-old player who is adapting to major league pitching.
In comparison, Castillo admitted that fielding is the key that prevents him from directly writing Li Haoyu's name into the starting list in 2027. Although Li Haoyu played 410.2 innings at second base this season and his fielding rate of 0.979 does not seem particularly worrying, his out production value (OAA) is only -16 and the total of all fielding positions is -12. This is not an issue that can be ignored simply because of his hitting potential. If Li Haoyu can eventually become a hitter with an offensive index of 0.780 to 0.800, then the Tigers may be able to accept some of his defensive flaws; but if his offensive index ends up being closer to the 0.714 before today, then if Li Haoyu wants to become a qualified daily second baseman, the importance of defense will be greatly increased, and it is also the area where he most obviously needs improvement.
Castillo concluded that Gleyber Torres will become a free agent, leaving the Tigers with a vacancy at second base next year. Li Haoyu is considered an existing internal option, but the Tigers may also seek external reinforcements. Li Haoyu is currently a competitive candidate rather than the undoubted starting second baseman, but Castillo said that Li Haoyu has shown offensive potential in the major leagues. Although there are still gaps and defense needs to be strengthened, he does not need to become a perfect product this year. He only needs to prove that he is worthy of the next opportunity, and Li Haoyu has done this.
