TSMC is the world's largest foundry. (Bloomberg file photo)
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] TSMC has benefited from the continued rise in demand for AI chips. Its stock price has surged nearly 384% in the past three years. How much room for growth does it have in the future? Analysis by foreign media "The Motley Fool" pointed out that as AI infrastructure investment expands, TSMC's revenue and profits are expected to continue to grow. If future earnings per share and price-to-earnings ratio are in line with expectations, the stock price may rise 184% from the current level by 2030.
Analyst Harsh Chauhan pointed out that TSMC is the world's largest semiconductor wafer foundry, producing advanced chips for chip design companies such as NVIDIA and AMD. As the demand for generative AI and data centers grows rapidly, TSMC has become a major beneficiary with its advanced process technology. In the past three years, TSMC’s stock price has risen by nearly 384%, surpassing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s increase of approximately 246% during the same period.
In terms of operations, TSMC's revenue in the first nine months of 2026 will increase by 41% annually, which is higher than the 36% growth rate for the whole of 2025; revenue in September increased by nearly 55% annually, and August also increased by 53%. Revenue in the third quarter reached US$46.71 billion, an increase of 50% year-on-year, exceeding the company's original forecast of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion. Reuters pointed out that TSMC’s net profit is expected to increase by 64% annually and is expected to hit a new profit high for the sixth consecutive quarter, reflecting that investment in AI infrastructure continues to drive chip demand.
Huida expects chip sales to double next year, and AMD is also optimistic about AI demand and expects to significantly increase chip supply in 2027. Both companies are important customers of TSMC, and related demand is expected to continue to inject orders.
Market research firm TrendForce pointed out that TSMC's 2-nanometer process production capacity may increase by 22% by mid-2027 compared with the end of 2026; 3-nanometer production capacity may also increase by 16% during the same period. Since these two advanced processes account for about one-third of TSMC's revenue, capacity expansion is expected to drive shipment growth. In addition, TSMC expects to increase advanced process prices by 5% to 10% next year. If demand, production capacity and prices grow simultaneously, it will help boost revenue and profits.
The report believes that when TSMC announces its financial report on October 15, it may put forward a future outlook that is better than market expectations. It is worth paying attention to customer stocking needs and AI investment trends.
In May this year, TSMC raised its 2030 global semiconductor industry revenue forecast to US$1.5 trillion, higher than the previous estimate of US$1 trillion, reflecting the market's expectations for long-term demand for semiconductors.
Analysts estimate that TSMC’s earnings per share will grow by 60% in 2026, reaching US$17.04, and it is also expected to maintain growth of approximately 30% in the next two years. If it is assumed that earnings per share grows by 20% in 2029 and 2030, earnings per share will reach US$42.05 in 2030; if the price-to-earnings ratio is maintained at 30 times, TSMC ADR stock price may reach US$1,261, an increase of 184% from the current stock price.
However, this trial calculation is not a guarantee of remuneration, but is based on the premise that TSMC's profits continue to grow and its valuation maintains a certain level. If AI investment cools down, customer demand is less than expected, or geopolitical risks increase, stock prices may still come under pressure. Therefore, the October 15 financial report will be an important time to observe TSMC’s subsequent growth momentum.
