Ocean current assists the selection? Hong Wanzhen said, "No one dares to say it's safe." Zhang Mingyou: It's too early to talk about sitting down and watching 4

With 20 days to go before the election, Taipei City Council members from the DPP originally had three seats in District 5 (Chiang Kai-shek, Wan Hua). After Wu Peiyi was elected as a legislator, there are currently two council members, Liu Yaoren and Hong Wanzhen. This conservative nomination includes two There are 4 seats in total, including incumbents and newcomers Zhang Mingyou and Ma Yuwen. With the blessing of the "hen" and "ocean current" of Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang, the election situation is rising, and the Green Camp hopes to reproduce the prosperity of "Four Seasons Red".

Hong Wanzhen said that the Zhongzheng and Wanhua elections have always been fierce. This time, there are more candidates without party membership, and the vote competition is more complicated. Both blue and green will be affected. No one dares to say "stable."

Hong Wanzhen believes that the most special thing about this "Ocean Current" is that it successfully broke through the circle. Some parents brought their children to the service office to get streamers, and two students hesitated at the door before mustering up the courage to walk in. This was relatively rare in the past. From being willing to pay attention and identify to taking the initiative to walk into the service center, and then starting to care about the big and small things around life, this is the inheritance of democracy. Different generations have different ways of participating, which also injects new vitality into democracy, making people truly feel that "politics is a matter for everyone", which is touching.

Zhang Mingyou pointed out that due to the overflowing ocean current, there are opportunities for four seats, but every seat has to be fought for. It is still too early to say "just wait and see". In addition to party support, the election of members of the Zhongzheng and Wanhua councils also depends on the candidates' own local operations and voters' trust. The popularity of the mayoral race will help drive voting, but in the end voters will have two votes in their hands. Whoever they vote for for the mayor and who they vote for for the council members will be considered separately, so be careful and fearful.

Zhang Mingyou analyzed that last time the four candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party received a total of 60,99 votes, accounting for approximately 35.2% of the valid votes in the entire constituency. There are only 1,150 votes between the last seat and the loser, which shows how close the race is for the last seat. If we only count the more than 60,000 votes last time, the average vote for the four people is about 15,000, which is very close to the 14,518 votes for the last seat last time. "This trial calculation can only show that the margin is very thin."

There are enough votes and a relatively balanced distribution, and there is indeed a chance to win one more seat. Therefore, it is very necessary for supporters to follow the party's guidance and allocate votes together. However, if a specific candidate tries to increase the number of votes or fails to match the votes, it may also make those who have a chance to be elected fall to the margins. In short, to fight for 4 seats, more votes must come in first, and everyone must canvass more votes. He believes that there is certainly a chance that the 60,000 votes will go up, but it is difficult to say now; in principle, the indicator is 3 as to whether the election situation in this district is optimistic or not.

First, how many voters who originally supported the DPP will go out to vote; second, whether the popularity generated by the mayoral election and the local operations of each candidate can bring in votes that did not go to the DPP legislators last time; third, how the candidates from other parties and independent parties are distributed, because their votes will also affect the final seat.

When asked about the relationship between the performance of MPs and the overall election situation, Zhang Mingyou said that media exposure and local voters’ evaluation of MPs should be viewed separately. Some people often talk about municipal affairs in the media, while others spend more time doing constituency services, going to surveys or handling local complaints. Re-election for multiple terms will build up local trust, and voters will have higher expectations and want to know what problems have been solved in the past four years. These can all be discussed in detail. It is impossible to judge the local support of a single candidate simply by relying on the frequency of programs or the volume of online voices.

What he is more worried about is that everyone first regards the three seats as already obtained, and only discusses whether there is a chance for the fourth seat. Going back to the last election, the DPP’s third seat was originally the last seat in the district. This time, comrades and supporters within the party should unite and attack. Each candidate should clearly explain his achievements, propositions and next steps, so that voters have a reason to go out and cast their vote and hit a home run with the ocean current.