The Federal Reserve faces a double test as markets await the first interest rate hike in 3 years

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve faces a double test, with markets awaiting the first interest rate hike in more than 3 years, at a time when inflation rates exceed the target, while President Donald Trump continues to press to reduce borrowing costs.

Markets are widely expected to raise the base interest rate by 25 basis points, which will raise the target range for the interest rate to about 3.75-4 percent. The potential move comes after data showed continued inflationary pressures, with the consumer price index rising 0.4 percent between July and August, and the annual inflation rate stabilizing at 3.4 percent.

Economists believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's statements in August largely paved the way for raising interest rates, after he stressed in a speech during the Jackson Hole conference that inflation is still higher than the 2 percent level targeted by the central bank, and that a faster decline in inflation will be necessary to avoid the need for additional tightening of monetary policy, according to what the Financial Times newspaper reported.

Olivier Quibion, professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin, told the British newspaper that the Federal Reserve is significantly late in raising interest rates. Pointing out that inflation has been higher than the target for years, and that it is not moving towards the central bank’s target.

In a survey conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business for the Financial Times, 50 out of 51 academic economists surveyed said that the cost of borrowing should rise from its current range of 3.5-3.75 percent. Most participants called for a 25 basis point hike, while 14 percent of them supported a larger increase of 50 basis points, due to concerns that increased fuel prices linked to the war with Iran would lead to wider inflation.

This comes at a time when price pressures are still much higher than the Fed’s target. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the central bank's preferred measure of inflation, reached 3.7 percent, against a target of 2 percent. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose to 3.3 percent in July, compared to 3 percent before the outbreak of the war with Iran, according to data reported by the Associated Press.

A test of the Fed's credibility

The challenge facing Warsh is not limited to the decision to raise interest rates; US monetary policy faces a test of its ability to influence market expectations regarding inflation and long-term interest rates.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds exceeded the 5 percent level this week for the first time in 3 years, before falling slightly in Wednesday’s trading. Mortgage rates, which are highly influenced by long-term bond yields, also rose.

Diane Swank, chief economist at KPMG, believes that raising interest rates now may lead, paradoxically, to lowering long-term interest rates later, if the move helps restore market confidence in the Fed’s ability to return inflation to the 2 percent level. The Associated Press reported that failure to achieve this may push markets to tighten financial conditions themselves through higher mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and government debt interest.

The sensitivity of the situation increases as energy prices continue to rise. High oil prices resulting from the war with Iran have increased pressure on inflation, while tariffs and huge investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure are adding other factors to price pressures, according to a Financial Times analysis.

Trump is pressing for a rate cut

On the other hand, Trump continues his calls for lowering interest rates, and he criticized the current borrowing costs and described them as “ridiculous,” while investors are awaiting how the US administration will deal with the expected decision to raise interest rates.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview with Fox News, reported by the Associated Press, that Trump “will probably not be very happy” if the Fed raises interest rates, but he will defend Warsh’s independence.

The political pressure comes at a time when markets are trying to evaluate the extent of the central bank’s independence. Especially after Trump strongly criticized Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, for not lowering interest rates as quickly as he had demanded.

In this context, Christine Forbes, a professor of economics at MIT Sloan College and a former official at the Bank of England, told the Associated Press that Warsh cares about his legacy and realizes that central bank presidents who respond to political pressures rather than economic developments are not viewed positively in economic history.

What comes after raising interest?

The most important question for markets remains whether the expected interest rate hike will be a single step, or the beginning of a new cycle of monetary tightening.

Markets are currently pricing in several additional interest rate increases, but economists are more conservative about the continuation of these increases through 2026, according to the Financial Times.

Jonathan Pingel, an economist at UBS, said that the Fed will not be forced to continue raising interest rates if upcoming inflation data show a decline in price pressures.

Sebnem Kalmi-Ozcan, a professor of economics at Brown University, said that Wednesday's decision is still - from her point of view - open to both possibilities, noting that Warsh may prefer to wait for more data in light of the uncertainty.

It is expected that the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts - if issued as part of the forecast package accompanying the decision - will provide indications of policymakers' vision of the path of inflation and interest rates, while the markets are also awaiting Warsh's statements regarding the next path of monetary policy.

Asian stocks moved in a narrow range on Wednesday, with the rise in global bond yields and oil prices stalling ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day.

The broader MSCI index of stocks in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, fluctuated between ups and downs, after declining over the previous four sessions, and rose in the latest trading by 0.3 percent, supported by gains in Taiwanese stocks that were offset by a decline in Chinese stocks.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.1 percent, while mini-futures for the S&P 500 index rose 0.1 percent.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell 0.85 basis points to 4.9875 percent during Asian trading, after exceeding the 5 percent level, on Tuesday, for the first time in 3 years, prior to the Federal Reserve’s decision and a press conference by its president, Kevin Warsh.

JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note that the bank is maintaining a “cautious and tactically neutral” stance ahead of the Fed’s meeting, noting that market expectations tend to raise interest rates by 25 basis points with a limited amount of guidance on the future path.

Analysts added that the meeting may constitute a “watershed event” that allows markets to reset their expectations for interest increases, warning that failure to act may affect the institution’s credibility and lead to a sharp reaction in stock markets.

Despite US President Donald Trump repeatedly calling for lowering interest rates, including his threat last month to halt trade with countries with which the United States has a trade deficit if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates, traders have not changed their bets significantly.

Markets are pricing in a 92.4 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points when announcing its decision, according to the CME Group’s “Feed Watch” tool, compared to 59.4 percent a week ago.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.5 percent during Tuesday’s trading, recording its decline for the second session in a row, after the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to its highest level since 2007.

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney, said that US stock markets closed lower with a rise in Treasury bond yields and a new jump in crude prices, in addition to the heated controversy over the pace of development of artificial intelligence, which kept the markets in a cautious state.

In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of 6 major currencies, stabilized near its highest level in two weeks at 99.675.

Oil prices fell during Asian trading; Brent crude futures fell 0.8 percent to $107.86 per barrel, after rising 2.9 percent on Tuesday, amid reports of the suspension of crude loadings at the port of Yanbu, and the cancellation of some export shipments destined for European customers.

Digital assets stabilized after a sharp wave of selling, following the US Senate’s vote, on Tuesday, against moving forward with comprehensive legislation for cryptocurrencies supported by President Trump’s administration. Bitcoin settled at $75,898.71, while Ether fell 0.3 percent to $2,400.46.

The dollar maintained its recent gains today (Wednesday), trading near its highest levels in several weeks, against a number of major currencies, with markets awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s decision, amid expectations that it will witness the first increase in a possible series of interest rate hikes.

The dollar rose in parallel with US Treasury bond yields this week, and its biggest gains were against the yen and the New Zealand dollar, which fell to the lowest level in two months at $0.5737, during Asian trading, while the yen fell to 155.43 against the dollar, which is its lowest level in a week.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said that markets are already pricing in about a 90 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, “which means the dollar will get a limited boost if the Fed raises rates.”

She added that there is a small possibility that the dollar will decline if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, but its president, Kevin Warsh, played down during his press conference the risks of raising interest rates again. On the other hand, I expected the dollar to decline by more than 1 percent if the bank did not raise interest.

The euro settled at $1.1545, near its lowest level in a month recorded on Monday at $1.1523, while the British pound reached $1.3478, not far from the lowest level in 6 weeks at $1.3464 recorded on Monday.

The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday.

The Australian dollar settled at $0.7129.

Although global bond yields have risen simultaneously in recent weeks, currency markets have not witnessed relatively large movements. Sovereign bond yields moved in similar directions without significant changes in the differences between them and the yields of other countries.

But the dollar has gained momentum in recent sessions, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve, despite President Donald Trump's choice of interest rates to lower interest rates, may have to raise them several times to show its seriousness in curbing inflation, which has been exacerbated by the Iran war and the resulting rise in energy prices.

Calvin Tse, head of US strategy and economics at BNP Paribas, said that the bank “is somewhat skeptical that raising interest rates once, or even twice, will be sufficient to restore (the Fed’s) credibility in the markets. Especially after the bank lost some of this credibility.”

The yen is experiencing an upward trend

The yen is one of the most prominent exceptions to the state of relative stability in currency markets. It is expected that the Federal Reserve’s decision will have a major impact on its course.

The yen is witnessing one of the strongest waves of recovery in months, supported by shifting expectations towards a more stringent Japanese interest rate policy, in addition to talk of joint intervention from Japan and the United States, and expectations of Japanese investors returning their money to the country.

Markets are pricing in a probability of about 80 percent for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates on Friday, according to LSEG data, and are also pricing in two increases of 25 basis points each by the end of January.

David A. said: Mayer, economist at Julius Baer, ​​said in a research note that the yen's path will remain largely dependent on interest rate differentials.

He added that the bank recently revised its forecast for the price of the dollar against the yen to 155 yen, in light of its skepticism about the ability of the Central Bank of Japan to keep up with the pace of monetary tightening that the markets are currently pricing in. Pointing to the continuing uncertainty, including the political preference for low interest rates in light of the ongoing fiscal expansion.

Among other Asian currencies, the South Korean won has risen by more than 15 percent against the dollar since the end of June, supported by capital flows returning to the country and profits achieved by major chip manufacturers.

As for the Chinese yuan, it lost momentum after a long rising wave near the level of 6.71 against the dollar, but it maintained its gains despite the widening difference between the decline in Chinese bond yields and interest rates in other economies.