According to a new study, at least three lakh people in some parts of the Himalayan region are living in areas where there is a risk of natural disasters.
Researchers found that construction work has increased rapidly in areas where the risk of disasters is high in northern Nepal, parts of south-eastern Tibet and a part of Uttarakhand, India.
Between 2016 and 2023, the area of land covered by buildings and other structures in these areas increased by about 45 percent.
This study published in Scientific Reports has also been reviewed by experts. Accordingly, construction work increased more rapidly in areas prone to flooding due to lakes formed by glaciers. Between 2016 and 2023, construction in such areas increased by about 78 percent.
Scientists associated with this study said that the actual number of people facing danger could be much higher. The reason for this is that researchers have studied only one specific area. He did not include surrounding areas where there are similar threats.
This study was done before the severe floods that hit Nepal in August. More than 1,400 people died and thousands went missing in this flood.
Even after this, many small incidents have happened. These also include the flood in Budhi Gandaki river on October 11. This flood damaged 200 houses, five bridges were washed away and five people went missing.
Removing buildings built on river banks is a big challenge
Nine researchers from Britain, Nepal and India studied areas up to 50 kilometers (30 miles) along Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes.
He found that large scale construction had taken place in these areas. This includes expansion of tourism related facilities, development of infrastructure and construction of real estate.
An example of this is Pokhara city. Situated in the foothills of the Himalayas, this city is a major center of tourism.
In the last 30 years, there has been a huge increase in the number of tourists coming here and accordingly the city has also expanded a lot.
Pokhara Mayor Dhanraj Acharya says that it is a big challenge to deal with the threat posed by the Seti Gandaki river flowing through the city. This river originates from the Annapurna mountain range and passes through the entire city.
He said that many old buildings are built at a distance of just five meters (16 feet) from the river bank, whereas according to the new rules, buildings should be at a greater distance from the river.
He said, "Where to take these buildings and how to remove them from there, this is the real challenge."
The world famous Annapurna trekking area is located in the north. Here too, the number of settlements along the river banks has increased significantly. Some of these settlements have also been hit by recent floods and landslides.
Phurpa Chhiring Lama, who runs the homestay there, is feeling helpless. Usually this time of the year is peak trekking season and all their 20 rooms are full. But now only five rooms are filled.
He said, "We have been doing this business for more than 40 years, but we have never seen such a disaster before."
Krishna Gauchan, who runs a hotel near Modi river, is also worried. This river is filled with water coming out of glaciers.
He said, "If the glacier breaks or the water of the lake formed by the glacier suddenly comes out, then this river can flood. We are living in this fear all the time."
Khagendra Paudel, a geography teacher at a local campus of Tribhuvan University, says that some people investing in tourism promote these places as tourist destinations without taking into account the dangers. The same is happening in the Himalayan valleys of North India, where a large number of people come for religious pilgrimages.
The president of the Hotel Association Pokhara also believes that tourism related business in the region has expanded "without any proper planning" and these places have been promoted "haphazardly".
Lakshman Subedi said, "By the time disaster strikes, it is too late." He said that the Hotel Association as an organization is trying to make tourism businessmen and investors aware of the dangers.
But the danger is not increasing only because of tourism. There has also been a significant increase in the construction of hydro power projects in the areas around Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers.
C. Scott Watson, lead author of the study and a glacier expert at the University of Leeds, warned, "The population in river valleys is continuously increasing. The decisions being taken today regarding development will have an impact on the risk of disasters for many decades to come."
Even more buildings may be at risk than those identified by researchers.
The study considered all buildings at risk that were within 50 meters (164 feet) above the surface of a river or glacier-fed lake.
But during the massive flood on August 26, locals in Rasuwa district say the river level rose by 70 meters (230 feet) in some places.
Due to this, buildings built far away from the banks of the river also got hit by the flood and got buried under debris and mud.
Risk of disaster increasing due to climate change
A major reason for danger in all these areas is the rising temperature of the Himalayan region. Scientists say that the speed of temperature rise here is twice the world average.
Because of this, glaciers, snow fields, snow layers and the snow that remains frozen on the ground throughout the year are melting rapidly.
Due to this the slopes of the mountains can become weak. Earthquakes also occur frequently in these areas. In such a situation, due to debris slipping from the mountains and other incidents, there can be huge devastation in the areas settled below.
Due to the rapid melting of snow, the lakes formed by glaciers start filling with water and their size increases. When these lakes cannot withstand the pressure of water and break, deadly floods occur. About 30 such incidents have been recorded in Nepal since 1940.
Another problem is that due to increase in temperature, it has started raining even in the high hilly areas, where earlier there was only snowfall. This increases the risk of incidents like slipping of mountain slopes, falling of rocks and large pieces of ice.
Nepal's Prime Minister Balen Shah recently mentioned the dangers posed by climate change during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly.
He said Nepal was paying a "very heavy price" for a crisis it had no role in creating.
"Every major disaster threatens to wipe out years of development work," he said, "and force a poor country to take on debt to compensate for losses it did not cause."
Elton Byers, a mountain geography expert at the University of Colorado, was not part of this study. He says that this study should help in implementing better early warning systems and other measures to prevent disasters.
However, doing this will not be easy. People working in this direction say that the rules related to construction are not implemented at the ground level. In many areas, construction has been going on for years without any proper planning.
According to Professor Surya Raj Acharya, Registrar of Nepal University and urban planning expert, roads, hydroelectric projects, hotels and market towns are rapidly expanding on the low-lying and flat land along the rivers. These areas are easy to reach and it is also convenient to build here.
He said those responsible for construction often ignored safety rules. These also include maintaining proper distance from the river banks.
He said, "A delicate ecosystem like the Himalayas requires more stringent planning and construction rules than other areas. Yet the rules here have been weak and poorly enforced."
Nepali officials say that they are working to overcome these problems. According to the National Disaster Agency, a ban will soon be imposed on settlements within 15 meters (49 feet) of the river bank in the Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi area, which suffered heavy destruction recently. Similar rules will soon be implemented in other river valleys also.
National Disaster Agency chief executive Dharam Raj Upreti said, "This is a challenging task, because in many places people have an emotional attachment to their land and property. But the growing risks cannot be ignored."
Rampant construction in Uttarakhand ignoring environmental rules
Something similar has happened in the Indian state of Uttarakhand, located on the western border of Nepal. Activist Anoop Nautiyal alleges that in the name of economic development, the rules for setting limits on tourism-related business and protecting the environment have been ignored.
He said that on paper there are rules prohibiting construction of houses and other buildings along the river banks, "but on the ground we do not see these rules being implemented."
The Uttarakhand government on October 12 approved new rules to control land use and construction in flood plains. "Its objective is to protect life, property and critical infrastructure from potential damage caused by floods and to maintain the natural flow of flood waters," the state cabinet decision said.
He believes that if the authorities divide the areas into high, medium and low risk categories according to the level of danger, then insurance coverage can also be decided accordingly. With this, people building houses in safe areas will be able to get better insurance protection.
But at present, there are no signs of slowing down the pace of construction in this entire area.
