
中國國家統計局數據顯示,2026年7月底規模以上工業企業應收帳款餘額達28.88兆人民幣,平均回收期從不到40天延長至近72天。中國建築、中國中鐵、中國鐵建、中國交建及中國中冶等五大央企基建巨頭應付帳款合計3.36兆元,其中中鐵周轉天數337天、中冶達438天。央企拖欠工程款時多以長期商業承兌匯票或電子憑證結算,導致中小企業資金被長期佔用,需透過央企關聯保理公司貼現取現,同時被扣取金融手續費。土地財政崩盤是新型三角債的根源,地方城投平台財政枯竭無法付工程款給央企,央企為維持營收繼續接單,將資金壓力向下轉嫁民企,最終導致企業倒閉、農民工失業、消費萎縮。
AI-generated summary
中國國家統計局數據顯示,規模以上工業企業應收帳款餘額達28.88兆人民幣,平均回收期從不到40天延長至近72天。土地財政崩盤導致地方城投平台財政枯竭,無法付工程款給央企。
(AI合成示意圖)
〔記者高嘉和/綜合報導〕根據中國國家統計局最新數據,到2026年7月底,規模以上工業企業應收帳款餘額飆升至28.88兆人民幣(以下同;約台幣126兆),企業應收帳款平均回收期從過去不到40天,被大幅拉長至近72天;相較於1990年代,這波「新型三角債」上升至央企(中央直接管轄的國企),且拖欠手法比被政策要求檢討的民企比亞迪「迪鏈」還要狠。
根據2026年上半年財報,中國建築、中國中鐵、中國鐵建、中國交建及中國中冶等五大央企基建巨頭,帳上「應付帳款」合計達3.36兆元,較恆大集團總負債規模2.44兆元還要高出一大截。其中的中鐵應付帳款周轉天數約337天,中冶更達到驚人的438天,意味著底層承包商把水泥運到工地、完工開票後,平均要苦等超過一年,才能拿到屬於自己的錢。
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中國基建央企拖欠下游中小企業工程款,較比亞迪之前引發巨大爭議的「迪鏈(供應鏈金融電子憑證)」模式,是更加惡劣。央企拖欠工程款時,往往不再支付現金,而是開立期限長達半年甚至一年的「商業承兌匯票」或自己發行的「電子憑證」;建築央企平均應付帳款周轉天數動輒超過300天、甚至400天,等於免費佔用中小企業資金超過一年;比亞迪還只是月結30至60天信用期加上6至8個月迪鏈結算模式,付款週期被延長至8到10個月,新能源車巨頭比亞迪比這些央行還算有點「良心」。
若民企急需現金發放工資,只能被迫去央企關聯的保理公司或金融平台進行「貼現」;央企不僅免費佔用中小企業的資金,還透過貼現利差「再扒一層皮」,賺取金融手續費。
而新型三角債的源頭就是「土地財政」破滅。過去十幾年,中國地方政府城投平台(LGFV)」靠賣地收入大搞基建,但隨著房市崩盤,地方財政枯竭,城投公司付不出工程款給央企,為了維持帳面營收規模、市占率,還有迎合中央「保增長、新基建」政治任務,這些央企或國企只能不斷接下回款無望的工程,隨後再將資金斷鏈的壓力「向下轉嫁」民企;最終惡果是企業虧損倒閉、農民工失業大增、消費萎縮,中國內需一路降溫。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
央企應付帳款周轉天數將在未來幾個月內繼續保持高位,除非土地財政恢復或中央政府介入協調。
Likely · Within months
中小企業透過央企關聯保理公司貼現取現的成本將持續壓縮其利潤空間。
Likely · Within months

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