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BackLianhe Daily poll shows Su Qiaohui leading by 3 percentage points. Li Sichuan bid: Streets are the most realistic polls
Lianhe Daily poll shows Su Qiaohui leading by 3 percentage points. Li Sichuan bid: Streets are the most realistic polls
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自由时报26 minutes agoPolitics3 min readChinaView original

Lianhe Daily poll shows Su Qiaohui leading by 3 percentage points. Li Sichuan bid: Streets are the most realistic polls

Jiang Yizhen, director of Li's Sichuan campaign office, emphasized that polling is a scientific tool rather than a weapon, and the streets are the most realistic polling site.

Quick Look

  • With 19 days to go before the New Taipei City mayoral election at the end of the year, a Lianhe Daily poll showed that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui's support was 42%, ahead of KMT candidate Li Sichuan's 39%.
  • Jiang Yizhen, Director of Li's Office, responded that internal polls showed that Li Sichuan was always in the lead, and that the streets were the most authentic polling site.
  • He called on the silent majority to turn into strength and decide the future of New Taipei City on November 28.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

With 19 days left before the New Taipei City mayoral election at the end of the year, the United Daily News conducted a poll from November 1 to 7 and successfully interviewed 1,114 adults registered in New Taipei City. Another 261 people refused to be interviewed. The sampling error was within plus or minus 3% at a 95% confidence level. The survey uses New Taipei City's residential and mobile phone dual-telephone directories as the matrix for random sampling, and the source of survey funding is Lianhe Daily.

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With 19 days to go until the end of the year, according to the latest poll by the United Daily News, New Taipei mayor candidate Su Qiaohui of the Democratic Progressive Party has 42% support, leading the Kuomintang candidate Li Sichuan, who is vying to succeed Mayor Hou Youyi, with 39%. In this regard, Jiang Yizhen, director of Lee's Sichuan campaign office, said that Lee was behind by 3 percentage points. Thank you to the media for reminding that despite the opponent's vigorous campaign, there are still a majority of silent forces who always support using "sweat drops" to fight for New Taipei. She emphasized that polling is a scientific tool rather than a weapon. Internal polling shows that Li is always in a stable lead. "The streets are the most realistic polling scene," calling on the silent majority to turn into strength.

Jiang Yizhen said, "Politics is never about interests, but about the people; public opinion is never about numbers, but about people's hearts." When Li Sichuan asked her for help in mid-June, she only said: "New Taipei cannot go back, let's work hard together." This road is not easy to walk. The team faces not only complex party interests and huge family power, but also the confusion of the polling network army.

Jiang Yizhen mentioned that in the mid-October People's Association poll, Li Sichuan was lagging behind by 13.1 percentage points. If you vote immediately, Su Qiaohui is ahead by 4.1 percentage points. Thank you expert Dai Lian for reminding that "the road to the right is always full of challenges and twists and turns." This time, the United Daily News poll found that Li Sichuan was lagging behind by 3 percentage points. Thank you to the media for reminding that despite the opponents' gongs and drums to build momentum, there is still a vast majority of silent forces, who always support the courage to fight for this city with "drops of sweat".

Jiang Yizhen emphasized that polling is a scientific tool, not a weapon for electioneering. It is more necessary to observe long-term trend changes. Since May, the team has been conducting rolling poll analysis for a long time, and Li Sichuan has always been in the stable lead. The team has absolute confidence in the wisdom of Li and the citizens of New Taipei City. Polarized stances and highly mobilized voices are often louder. When the streets are bustling with "float parades", more citizens are still working silently at the grassroots level. The "Spiral of Silence" represents the power of persistence and silent dedication, and has also made New Taipei City ranked first in Taiwan among the "50 Happiest Cities in the World".

Jiang Yizhen pointed out that in the past five months, she has accompanied Li Sichuan throughout the 29th district, and the hard-working achievements of former mayors Zhu Lilun, Hou Youyi and Li Sichuan can be seen everywhere. "The streets are the most authentic polling scene." Every pair of warm hands and hot eyes are the expectations of 4.04 million citizens for a better future. From Zhou Xiwei, Zhu Lilun, Hou Youyi to Li Sichuan, New Taipei City is moving on the right path.

Jiang Yizhen said, "Instead of cursing the darkness, it is better to light up the light." This is a difficult election, but the team has no right to be pessimistic. It is not only protecting Li Sichuan, but also the right direction of New Taipei and Taiwan. She called on everyone to canvass, urge for votes, vote, and use practical actions to support the engineers who work hard to decide the bright future of New Taipei City on November 28.

The Lianhe Daily New Taipei City mayoral election poll was conducted from November 1 to 7. 1,114 adults registered in New Taipei City were successfully interviewed, and 261 people refused to be interviewed; at a 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within plus or minus 3%. The survey uses New Taipei City's residential and mobile phone dual-telephone records as the parent population for random sampling. It improves the shortcomings of traditional local phone sampling by adding samples of mobile phone-only households that cannot be reached by local calls. It is weighted according to the gender and age structure of voters over 20 years old in New Taipei City. The source of survey funding is Lianhe Bao.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • Li Sichuan's campaign team will continue to emphasize that internal polls show that it is in a stable lead before the voting day on November 28, and mobilize the silent majority vote

    Likely · Within days

Open Questions

  • What are the specific values ​​and survey agency of the "internal poll" called by Li Sichuan's campaign office?
  • What are the detailed sample numbers and methodology of the mid-October poll conducted by the Christian People's Association?
  • What are the specific policy proposals and differences between the two candidates?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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