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Back国民の怒り反映 前嶋和弘・上智大教授―米中間選挙・識者談話
国民の怒り反映 前嶋和弘・上智大教授―米中間選挙・識者談話
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時事通信10 minutes agoWorld2 min readJapanView translation

国民の怒り反映 前嶋和弘・上智大教授―米中間選挙・識者談話

上智大教授と同志社大大学院教授が米国政治の再編と今後の展望を語る

Quick Look

米中間選挙で民主党が躍進し、トランプ政権への国民の怒りが反映された。関税や対イラン軍事作戦への不満が表面化し、共和党強い州でも民主党が議席を増やした。上院でのフィリバスター阻止には60票が必要だが民主党は単独で確保できておらず、弾劾訴追も上院3分の2以上の賛成が必要。共和党支持層のトランプ支持率は8割以上で、弾劾は支持層の分断を招くリスクがある。前回の中間選挙でも下院は民主党多数だったがトランプ氏は政策を断行した。レームダック化は初めてではないが、これまでのような好き勝手はしにくいムードになっている。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

過去の中間選挙でも与党は議席を減らしてきたが、今回はこれまでに比べてかなり減らしており、共和党が強い州でも民主党が躍進した。第1次トランプ政権時の中間選挙では下院で民主党が多数を占めたが、トランプ氏は自身の政策を断行した。

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前嶋和弘・上智大教授(米国政治)の話 今回の中間選挙では、民主党支持者を中心に、トランプ政権に対する国民の怒りが反映された。各国との関税を巡るあつれきや対イラン軍事作戦への不満が表面化した。

米政治の再編進む 三牧聖子・同志社大大学院教授―米中間選挙・識者談話

過去の中間選挙でも与党は議席を減らしてきた。ただ、今回はこれまでに比べ、かなり減らしており、共和党が強い州でも民主党が躍進した。投票に行くよう求めたトランプ大統領の呼び掛けに共和党支持者が応じなかったのだろう。

ただ、これで民主党の思い通りに法案を通過させられるわけではない。上院での議事妨害(フィリバスター)阻止には60票が必要だが、民主党は単独でこれだけの議席を確保できていない。下院では大統領の弾劾訴追も可能になるが、上院の3分の2以上が賛成しないと罷免に至らない。

共和党支持層に限れば、トランプ氏の支持率は8割以上。弾劾に踏み切れば、同氏を守ろうとする支持者との間で分断が深まりかねない。

第1次トランプ政権時の中間選挙では下院で民主党が多数を占めたが、トランプ氏は自身の政策を断行した。レームダック(死に体)化は今回が初めてではない。とはいえ、これまでのような好き勝手はしにくいムードになるのも事実。同氏がどれだけ失速していくかが注目点だ。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • トランプ氏がレームダック状態でこれまでのような好き勝手はしにくくなる

    Likely · Within months

  • 弾劾訴追が共和党支持層の分断を深めるリスクがある

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • 民主党が下院で弾劾訴追を実際に発議するか
  • トランプ氏がレームダック状態でどの程度政策を断行できるか
  • 共和党支持層のトランプ支持率が今後どう変化するか

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This article was originally published by 時事通信.

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