(Central News Agency, Washington, Comprehensive Foreign News Report on the 1st) The United States will hold midterm elections on the 3rd. The South China Morning Post reported that scholar Glaser analyzed that if the Democratic Party controls both houses of Congress after the election, the "Six Assurances to Taiwan Act" may gain momentum.
The United States and China signed the "August 17 Communique" involving arms sales to Taiwan in 1982. In order to reduce the impact on Taiwan, then US President Ronald Reagan asked James Lilley, director of the Taipei Office of the American Institute in Taiwan, and others to provide "six guarantees" to then President Chiang Ching-kuo, one of which was "not agreeing to consult China on arms sales to Taiwan."
At the beginning of this year, US President Trump said that he was "discussing" arms sales to Taiwan with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he was questioned as being contrary to the spirit of the Six Assurances.
Ro Khanna, the top Democratic member of the Special Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China, pointed out at the time that unlike the Taiwan Relations Act, the six guarantees had not yet been formally written into law. The U.S. Congress is pushing for legislation to formalize these stable principles into law.
Now that the United States is about to usher in the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress, Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank in Washington, said that if the Democratic Party wins the election, it may expand its influence on Taiwan policy by controlling the defense authorization and spending procedures, and even the Senate agenda.
She said that could allow Democrats to push for demands on the government, including delivery of previously approved weapons, notification of new arms sales, use of Taiwan security aid funds and notification of delays, and demands for justification for suspending or attaching conditions to arms sales.
Glaser said: "If the Democratic Party controls both houses of Congress, they may push for legislation to set limits on the policies of the executive branch. For example, there may be an incentive to pass the "Six Guarantees Act on Taiwan" co-sponsored by members of the cross-party group."
In addition to the Taiwan issue, analysts quoted by Nanjing Morning Post also said that issues such as technology, trade, artificial intelligence (AI) and tariffs may also become the focus of Congress' review of U.S.-China relations after the election.
Kyle Chan, a researcher at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, predicts that if the Democratic Party takes control of Congress, it may adopt a two-pronged strategy on AI and technology issues. On the one hand, it will try to prevent loopholes in export control and promote bills such as the "Multilateral Coordinated Control of Hardware Technology Act" (MATCH Act). On the other hand, it will establish more communication channels with China in the field of AI.
Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group, believes that if the Democratic Party wins back one or both houses of Congress, it will be more motivated to promote U.S.-China cooperation in the field of AI.
Regarding tariffs, Josh Lipsky, chairman of international economic affairs at the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, said that the Democratic Party has vowed to try to limit Trump's tariff measures after gaining control of Congress, but some tariffs on China may still be retained.
He said: "Look at the 100% tariff that (former President Biden) imposed on Chinese electric cars, right? That would prevent what Europe is experiencing now from happening in our market, which is the influx of cheap Chinese electric cars."
In addition, if the Democrats gain a majority, Kenner will have the opportunity to succeed Republican John Moolenaar and become chairman of the Special Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China.
Wayne of the International Crisis Group believes that if Kenner becomes chairman, it may take the committee in a "more productive direction." Kenner clearly understands the challenges that China poses to U.S. national interests.
