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Back|民調拉近 蔣萬安憶去年大罷免:選民變不理性、憂對立仇視延伸
民調拉近  蔣萬安憶去年大罷免:選民變不理性、憂對立仇視延伸
Developing
自由时报·2 hours ago·Politics·2 min read·🇨🇳China·

民調拉近 蔣萬安憶去年大罷免:選民變不理性、憂對立仇視延伸

Quick Look

TVBS民調顯示國民黨籍台北市長蔣萬安支持度49%,領先民進黨參選人沈伯洋41%,差距縮小至8個百分點。蔣萬安表示選戰進入白熱化,支持者歸隊是必然,並擔心去年立委大罷免期間的社會對立與選民不理性情況會延續至今年的市長連任選戰。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

去年發生立委大罷免事件,蔣萬安協助台北市5位藍委反罷免,期間感受到社會高度對立與選民情緒兩極化。

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TVBS昨天(8日)公布台北市長的選戰民調,尋求連任的國民黨籍市長蔣萬安,僅領先對手、民進黨參選人沈伯洋8個百分點(蔣萬安支持度49%、沈伯洋是41%),蔣萬安今天受訪表示,選戰剩一個多月,支持者各自歸隊,選情拉近是必然的,從去年的立委大罷免起,「從來沒有感受到台灣、甚至台北的選民會變成這麼的不理性」,他擔心社會上的仇視跟對立會延續,但身為參選人就必須面對。

蔣萬安今天上午接受媒體人唐湘龍的專訪,談到民調數據的領先差距縮小,他認為,距離選舉只剩50天,已經非常激烈,支持者也各自歸隊,最後進入選戰白熱化,剩下最後一個月的支持度會更接近,他已有心理準備,這本來就是必然。

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他並說,在去年的立委大罷免時,他協助台北市5位藍委反罷免,那時就感受到很強烈的氛圍,整個社會非常對立,不管是陪候選人掃街或坐在戰車上催票,民眾的反應非常兩極化,有民眾從遠處衝過來叫囂、意識型態強烈地喊「中共同路人」,但也有支持者跑來說「一直幫你祈禱、加油等......」,當時的氛圍是社會完全被撕裂。

蔣萬安指出,從10年前競選立委至今,從未像去年大罷免時,感受到台灣、甚至台北的選民會變成這麼不理性,當時也想到再隔一年,就是今年要拚市長連任時,也許會延續社會上的仇視跟對立,不知道這會不會變成台灣選舉的常態,但是他身為參選人就必須面對。

另外,蔣萬安競選辦公室今天表示,蔣市長上午在節目受訪時,是形容去年大罷免的氛圍讓人感受到「社會完全被撕裂」,這是他從政十年參選立委以來,從未感受到台灣,甚至台北的選民會變成那麼的不理性;競辦並說,有媒體把市長形容的去年大罷免選舉氛圍,誤植為今年的台北市長選舉,要提出嚴正的澄清。

這份民調為TVBS民意調查中心於115年10月3日,及10月5日至7日晚間18:30至22:00的調查,接觸1284位20歲以上台北市民,拒訪164位,拒訪率12.8%,成功訪問有效樣本1120位,在95%的信心水準下,抽樣誤差為±2.9個百分點以內。抽樣方法採市內電話號碼後四碼隨機抽樣,人員電話訪問,所有資料並依母體性別、年齡、地區、教育程度等變項進行統計加權處理,調查經費來源為TVBS。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 台北市長選戰將在剩餘的一個月內進入白熱化,支持度差距可能進一步縮小

    Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • ?社會對立是否會成為台灣選舉的常態?
  • ?蔣萬安能否在剩餘的選戰中穩住支持率?
  • ?沈伯洋是否能縮小與蔣萬安的支持度差距?

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This article was originally published by 自由时报.

Quick Look

TVBS民調顯示國民黨籍台北市長蔣萬安支持度49%,領先民進黨參選人沈伯洋41%,差距縮小至8個百分點。蔣萬安表示選戰進入白熱化,支持者歸隊是必然,並擔心去年立委大罷免期間的社會對立與選民不理性情況會延續至今年的市長連任選戰。

AI-generated summary

Story signals

News tone
Negative
Emotional intensity
High
News value
Moderate
Global impact
National
Urgency
Developing
Follow-up likelihood
Likely
Relevance window
Weeks

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自由时报
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Published
2 hours ago
View translation
蔣萬安
沈伯洋
台北市長選舉
蔣萬安
沈伯洋
唐湘龍
國民黨
民進黨
TVBS
TVBS民意調查中心
台北市
台灣
沈伯洋
台北市長選舉
TVBS民調
立委大罷免
國民黨
民進黨

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