With the targeting of 60 people from the Ethiopian Oromiya region, and the killing of at least 9 in a border town following clashes between ethnic groups, the manifestations of instability have not subsided in recent days in Ethiopia, despite Addis Ababa’s announcement, about a week ago, of eliminating the “rebellion” of the “Tigray Liberation Front” in the country that establishes multi-sectarianism according to the 1994 constitution.
After 3 decades, Ethiopia awaits the implementation of the outcomes of the unprecedented national dialogue that was held for months. Hoping for “comprehensive unity” that changes this ethnic map, and “to move from managing pluralism with the logic of national competition to consolidating citizenship and national partnership, in a way that strengthens the unity of the state,” according to estimates by an Ethiopian researcher in African affairs.
However, the confrontations in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia reveal the nature of the influence of the ethnic federal system on the political scene, making it an ongoing crisis that requires launching a comprehensive political dialogue and reaching a political system that guarantees equality in citizenship, according to an expert on African affairs.
According to official information and estimates, Ethiopia consists of 12 federal states, in addition to two cities that enjoy special administration, Addis Ababa and Dirdawa, according to an ethnic federal system known in 1992 and established by the 1994 Constitution.
Ethiopia includes more than 80 ethnic groups, the largest and most prominent of which is the Oromo with about 35 percent of the population, followed by the Amhara with about 24 percent, then the Somalis with about 7 percent, the Tigray with about 6 percent, and the Sidama with about 4 percent.
The Oromo are concentrated in the Oromia region of central and southern Ethiopia, and the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed belongs to it, who came to power decades after they talked about marginalization.
Despite Abiy Ahmed's rise to power, this ethnic group is divided between his supporters and opponents such as the Oromo Liberation Army.
As for the Amhara, they are concentrated in the Amhara region of northern and central Ethiopia. They previously ruled Ethiopia, and some of them are currently engaged in the ranks of the “Fano fighters” in battles against the government in a dispute over power and land, while the Somali region group, or “Somalis,” is prominent in the east of the country, amid ongoing border tensions with the Oromo region.
Tigray is centered in the north of the country, and the “Tigray People’s Liberation Front” dominated power in Ethiopia for three decades (1991 - 2018), before tension with Abiy Ahmed led to a war between 2020 - 2022, which was stopped by a “fragile peace agreement” that did not prevent renewed fighting at the end of last September for a few weeks with the formation of a new armed alliance. Unlike other ethnicities, most notably the Sidawa, which demand autonomy.
The Ethiopian researcher in African affairs, Musa Shehu, believes that “Ethiopia represents a unique model of national, religious and cultural diversity, which throughout history has been a source of cultural richness, but has imposed political challenges related to identity management and the sharing of power and wealth.”
According to Shehu, Ethiopia went through several stages: The first is ethnic federalism, with the constitution approving the system of ethnic federalism to guarantee the rights and autonomy of nationalities, adding to Asharq Al-Awsat that “despite its contribution to the recognition of linguistic and cultural pluralism, its application has resulted in competition over powers, borders, and resources, which has been reflected in the relations between some regions and the central government.”
With the arrival of Abiy Ahmed to power in 2018, Ethiopia witnessed a second phase known as rebuilding consensus, according to Shehu, who pointed out that “a trend has emerged towards strengthening the inclusive national identity, political openness, and reformulating the relationship between national affiliations and state institutions, with continuing security and political challenges in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia.”
The third stage, in confronting the complexities of the ethnic system, came through the National Dialogue (launched by the government in 2021) as a path for reform, according to Sheikho, explaining that “the establishment of the National Dialogue Committee and its efforts over recent years came as an institutional step to address historical differences through discussion and consensus.”
In contrast, Ali Mahmoud Kalni, an expert on African affairs, believes that “Ethiopia faces intertwined political and security challenges related to the nature of its federal system, the multiplicity of its national and religious components, and competition for power and resources.”
“Giving the system of ethnic federalism, which was formed in the 1990s, a framework for recognizing national identities and granting regions broad powers; But it remained a matter of controversy regarding his ability to achieve a balance between the right of nationalities to manage their affairs and preserve the unity of the state,” according to Mahmoud.
Although “ethnic federalism represents one way to address the thorny issues of racial justice and rights, in the Ethiopian experience it has become a motive for internal destabilization,” according to a report by the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies by researcher Ahmed Askar.
This was represented, according to the report published in 2021, “in features, most notably border conflicts and ethnic conflicts in Oromia, Tigray, Benishangul-Gumuz, Afar, the Ethiopian Somali region, and Amhara, in addition to the formation of paramilitary forces and local militias in the regions.”
A few years later, the danger was present, as the military formations produced by that ethnic regime revived battles last September, after the formation of the “Cooperation for Survival” alliance between 7 armed groups representing different nationalities in Ethiopia.
This armed entity, some of whose forces were tested in battles in the north of the country against the federal government in several regions, includes the “Tigray People’s Liberation Front” (established in 1975), the “National Movement of Amhara Fano” (established with the 2016-2018 protests), and the “Oromo Liberation Army” (formed in 2018 after its separation from its political front, which was founded in 1973). The “Ogaden National Liberation Front” (founded in 1984), the “Revolutionary Front for the National Unity of Afar” (in 1993), the “Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement,” which emerged in the 1970s, and the “Democratic Movement of the Gums People,” all of which emerged from the womb of that ethnic regime in an extended struggle over identity, power, and land, according to observers.
The features of the internal threat were reinforced, according to the Al-Ahram Center report, by Article 39 of the Ethiopian Federal Constitution, which grants Ethiopian regions and nationalities the right to self-government and sometimes secession.
These threats were also present 5 years later, in the Ethiopian National Dialogue, which approved the deletion of that article last August. This October, the National Dialogue Committee delivered its recommendations to federal and regional institutions, after broad consultations that addressed issues of governance, identity, constitution, and development.
Here, Sheikho explains that the next stage depends on “transforming the dialogue’s recommendations into practical reforms, expanding the participation of political forces, strengthening confidence between the regions and the center, and completing the paths of reconciliation and peace.”
He believes that “the current stage provides Ethiopia with an opportunity to move from managing pluralism according to the logic of national competition, to consolidating citizenship and national partnership, in a way that strengthens the unity of the state and opens broader horizons for stability and development in the Horn of Africa.”
However, Mahmoud believes that “the confrontations in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia reflect the depth of the problems associated with the distribution of power, the settlement of conflicts, and the management of national pluralism. They also show that political disputes, when they intersect with historical grievances and competition over lands, resources, and representation, may turn into armed conflicts that are difficult to contain by security means alone.”
The chances of containing the crisis of the complex ethnic system depend, according to Mahmoud, on “launching a comprehensive political dialogue, providing equal guarantees to the various nationalities, stopping exclusion and protecting civilians, balancing the powers of the regions and the authority of the federal state, and providing reliable paths for reconciliation and accountability, in a way that limits the reproduction of conflict and enhances the chances of Ethiopia’s unity.”
