European military facilities are frequently attacked by drones and arsonists, and Russia is suspected of being behind it

The incident of a drone carrying explosives at Germany's Leipzig Airport has once again highlighted the threat European countries face from Russia's hybrid attacks. BBC News reported on the 4th that fires, arson and drone break-ins at military industrial facilities have been reported in Europe this summer, with a high concentration of incidents in the military and defense industries, with Russia being the main target of suspicion. Experts believe that its purpose may not only be to create chaos, but also to directly pressure the country to assist Ukraine and test the bottom line of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Recent cases of such incidents in Europe include the discovery of a drone equipped with explosives at Leipzig Airport in Germany on August 4; a fire at a factory of the Bulgarian defense industry company EMCO on August 10; and a fire and explosion at KNDS Ammo Italy, an Italian ammunition factory owned by the European military industry company KNDS Group, on August 13. Local prosecutors are investigating the possibility of outside intervention. In addition, suspicious fires or arson occurred in drone factories in Estonia, Slovakia and Ukraine in the middle of the same month. Some countries have pointed their fingers at Russia.

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The difference between this wave and similar events in the past is the intensity. The BBC quoted Daniela Richterova, a scholar at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, as saying, "The intensity of attacks on military facilities seen in the past few weeks is unusual." She believes that Ukraine has recently brought the war into Russia. "They (Moscow) are under pressure to respond." The Kremlin's current goal is to "send a coercive signal": by increasing the cost of aiding Ukraine, pressure these countries to stop supporting Kiev.

Another interpretation is that Russia’s intention is to test NATO’s bottom line. Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House, a British think tank, believes that Russia is testing the reaction of victim countries, their real willingness to take action, and observing weaknesses to prepare for the "next phase" of its aggressive actions in Europe.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a British think tank that tracks cases of sabotage operations, pointed out that another characteristic of such operations is the extensive use of Russian agents, so-called "gig economy saboteurs". Most of them are Russian-speaking people from the former Soviet Union. They are attracted by money rather than political beliefs. They are recruited and coordinated through the Internet by behind-the-scenes operators in Russia. IISS likens these agents to suicide drones: low-cost, easy to deploy in large numbers, and easy to deny.

Richterova warned that we are still in a gray zone between peace and war, but "the events we have seen in the past few weeks are narrowing this zone" and increasing the risk of the situation escalating. NATO still has no clear answer to the extent to which the accumulation of small-scale and sporadic incidents constitutes a sustained attack by Russia.