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Back《商报》评论:中美竞争暗流涌动,特朗普缺乏对华战略
《商报》评论:中美竞争暗流涌动,特朗普缺乏对华战略
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德国之声1 hour agoPolitics3 min readChinaView translation

《商报》评论:中美竞争暗流涌动,特朗普缺乏对华战略

Quick Look

《商报》评论指出,尽管特朗普称习近平为“朋友”,但中美关系本质是竞争而非友谊。中国通过产能过剩施压全球市场,特朗普却缺乏明确对华战略,仅凭直觉和个人关系处理事务。美财长贝森特宣布中美同意将贸易休战期延长两个月,以避免贸易战升级损害经济增长。《科隆城市报》客座评论强调,中美之间存在根深蒂固的相互不信任,尽管关系出现缓和迹象,但这仅是基于利益的权宜之计。特朗普曾以妖魔化中国赢得选举,后因反制措施被迫让步。2025年10月,特朗普与习近平在釜山会谈并签署一年期贸易协定,美方降低关税,中国暂停稀土出口管制并增加美国农产品进口。习近平访美被认为相对和谐,因两国经济形势不佳,除了延长贸易停火别无选择。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

中美关系长期存在竞争与不信任,特朗普上任后曾以妖魔化中国赢得选举支持,后因反制措施被迫调整关税政策。2025年10月,双方在釜山签署一年期贸易协定,美方降低关税,中国暂停稀土出口管制。

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(德国之声中文网)《商报》评论认为,尽管美国总统特朗普喜欢对习近平以“朋友”相称,但中美领导人之间绝不是什么“朋友”关系,精心安排的欢迎场面也无法改变这一事实。这篇题为《暗流涌动的中美竞争》的评论写道:

“盛大欢迎场面的背后,中美竞争关系正在不断激化。两国间的矛盾虽然简单,却极具爆炸性:中国希望扩展自己的势力范围,先是在亚洲,进而要扩展至全球。但美国并不愿意将自己的影响力拱手相让。除此之外,为了扩大影响力,并支撑本国经济,中国凭借其规模庞大、并受到国家补贴的过剩产能,对各主要竞争对手形成了强劲的压力,这其中也包括美国。

而真正的危险却在于,面对这一巨大挑战,特朗普却没有任何的对华战略。这位总统喜欢凭直觉行事,他重视股市波动,更相信凭借个人关系,能让所有问题都迎刃而解。也正因为如此,他非常重视此次习近平的来访,当然也是因为与习的会晤也会提升他本人的声誉。

与前任拜登不同,特朗普在制定对华政策时,并不会同德国等长期盟友进行沟通协调,虽然协调一致的对华政策本来会具有更强的杀伤力。对欧洲来说,特朗普缺乏明确战略以及在对华问题上的单方行动,无疑是一个问题。因为特朗普的行为令人无法预测中美两国关系的未来走势,更无法判断这一切将会对欧洲产生怎样的影响。”

中国国家主席习近平抵达华盛顿数小时之后,美国财长贝森特就宣布,美中两国已同意将贸易休战期延长两个月。《商报》写道,显然两国领导人都不愿意让贸易战进一步升级,损害本国的经济增长:

“但一旦两国关系层面上发生突发事件,导致贸易战死灰复燃又该如何呢?

届时德国企业可能又要苦等来自中国的稀土材料了。北京此前就已经使用过这样的手段。欧洲人为了自身利益,也应当减少对中华人民共和国的依赖。与此同时,欧洲还应保护本土市场,免受中国高额补贴产品的冲击。或许从自由市场理念的层面来看,这类措施会令人感到痛苦,但有一点却是可以肯定的,美国人也会这么做。”

“中美间存在严重的不信任”

《科隆城市报》客座评论认为,中美之间仍存在着根深蒂固的相互不信任,虽然双边关系出现缓和迹象,但这也只是基于利益考量的权宜之计:

“中美两大国之间,仍充满了相互的不信任。中国对美国的权势地位仍有某种程度的尊重和认可,尽管认可度已经在逐步下降。而与此同时,美国则仍习惯性地将中国、而不是俄罗斯视为头号敌人。无论是在国会,还是民间,对中国极大的不信任感仍普遍存在。

特朗普当年首次当选总统,某种程度上也是得益于他对中国的妖魔化。他指责中国是新冠疫情的源头,声称中国以巨额顺差强奸美国,并试图最终夺取美国世界头号经济强国的地位。第二个总统任期开始后,特朗普仍会公开表达他对中国的担忧。2025年,他曾一度对中国产品实施145%的关税,不过,这一关税很快就被大幅下调。因为,北京也对美国产品开始征收高额关税,并同时大规模限制关键矿产品的对美出口,从而使包括汽车、军火在内的众多美国工业领域受到严重冲击。特朗普很快就做出了让步。

此后,中美关系出现缓解趋势。特朗普终于意识到,习近平是一位必须高度重视的对手,他不像大多数欧洲人那样,可以任意摆布。

2025年10月,特朗普与习近平在韩国釜山举行了不到两小时的会谈,并签署了一份有效期一年的贸易协定。美国方面宣布,将对中国产品的平均关税从57%下调至47%,并在一年期限内暂停征收惩罚性关税。作为回报,中国方面承诺暂停针对稀土和其他高科技产品的出口管制,并增加从美国进口大豆及其他农产品的数量。...

一般认为,习近平此次访美行程将相对和谐。毕竟中美两国经济形势均欠佳,中国的青年失业率居高不下,而美国则是通胀率不断飙升,特朗普和习近平除了延长贸易停火,也别无选择。”

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 中美贸易休战期将在延长两个月后继续谈判,但达成长期协议的难度较大

    Likely · Within months

  • 欧洲将加大减少对华依赖的力度,特别是在关键材料和高科技领域

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 特朗普是否会制定出明确的长期对华战略?
  • 贸易休战期延长两个月后,双方是否能达成更持久的协议?
  • 欧洲在中美博弈中将采取何种立场以平衡自身利益?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

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