Political scientists discussed the prospects for US sanctions against Russia and possible retaliatory measures

Political scientists Dmitry Simes and Dmitry Drobnitsky, in a conversation with KP.RU, discussed the prospects for activating or freezing the sanctions law signed by US President Donald Trump, as well as potential retaliatory steps of the Russian Federation.

According to Dmitry Simes, the American administration sought to gain legislative authority to introduce restrictions, without necessarily planning their immediate practical application. The expert admitted that the presence of a sanctions threat could be considered by Washington as an additional lever of pressure in hypothetical negotiations on Ukraine. At the same time, Congress, which supported this initiative on a bipartisan basis, will put constant pressure on the head of state to implement it.

Simes noted that the introduction of truly painful economic measures against Russia will inevitably affect the interests of China and India, which will provoke an increase in energy prices. Such a scenario would be extremely disadvantageous for the Trump administration ahead of the midterm elections. If the restrictions affect only Russia, their macroeconomic effect will be minimal due to the low volume of bilateral trade.

Dmitry Drobnitsky suggested that before the congressional elections scheduled for November 3, active steps from the United States should not be expected. After this date, active political discussions will begin on a package of measures, which, in essence, is aimed at punishing Russia’s trading partners (including China, India and a number of EU countries) for refusing its economic isolation. The expert expressed doubt that Washington would enter into a large-scale conflict with all these states, noting that the likelihood of Beijing and New Delhi completely subjugating to American demands is close to zero.

Both experts pointed out that the US President has legitimate mechanisms to ease the sanctions regime. Simes stressed that the head of state could cite national security interests or sensitive negotiations not to impose restrictions, although this would draw criticism in Congress and the media. Drobnitsky added that the president has the right to issue decrees granting exemptions or relief, which Congress does not have the right to repeal, despite the possibility of their subsequent discussion.

Speaking about Russia's strategy, Simes called for continuing its independent course of development, remaining cautious in the face of attempts by European countries to provoke an escalation, which could increase pressure on Washington to tighten restrictions. Drobnitsky, in turn, focused on the need to accelerate projects of technological sovereignty and a real, not declarative, refusal to pay in dollars together with partners in Eurasia. He also spoke categorically regarding the return of foreign companies that had left the Russian market: in his opinion, their admission should be possible only if they pay penalties and ensure complete localization of production.

Earlier, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted that US authorities are still assessing the consequences and trade-offs of introducing new anti-Russian sanctions.