The countdown to the nine-in-one election is over, and the "ocean current" spills over to affect the Taoyuan election! The People's Association and polling expert Dai Li'an released the latest poll on the Taoyuan mayoral election today (10th). The Kuomintang's Taoyuan mayoral candidate Zhang Shanzheng, who is seeking re-election, has 36.9% support, slightly ahead of the DPP candidate Huang Shijie's 32.8%. The gap between the two sides is only 4.1 percentage points.
According to the poll results, if people vote now, Zhang Shanzheng's support is 36.9% and Huang Shijie's support is 32.8%. Zhang Shanzheng's lead has been approached by Huang Shijie. Among the people who said they will definitely vote, 42.7% will vote for Huang Shijie and 41.4% will vote for Zhang Shanzheng. Among people who are likely to vote, 36.7% will vote for Zhang Shanzheng and 23.4% will vote for Huang Shijie.
The poll shows that whether there should be a rotation of political parties in this Taoyuan mayoral election, 33.8% believe that the Democratic Progressive Party will be replaced, and 31.0% believe that the KMT will continue to be mayor. There is a slight lead in supporting changing parties.
After cross-analysis, 42.1% of the people who said they would definitely go to vote believed that the Democratic Progressive Party should be replaced, and 34.9% wanted the Kuomintang to continue to be mayor. It is worth noting that Zhang Shanzheng’s current approval rating is 36.9%, and Huang Shijie’s support rating is 32.8%. Comparing the results of this question, it can be seen that Huang Shijie still has potential supporters, and it may be difficult to significantly increase Zhang Shanzheng’s points based on the image of the Kuomintang.
The poll also asked, who is most suitable to be the mayor of Taoyuan? 53.5% think Zhang Shanzheng is suitable and 25.4% are not suitable; 36.9% think Huang Shijie is suitable and 18.2% are not suitable.
The survey shows that as many as 91.9% of KMT supporters believe that Zhang Shanzheng is suitable to be the mayor of Taoyuan; among DPP supporters, only 74.1% think that Huang Shijie is suitable to be the mayor of Taoyuan.
Poll analysis pointed out that in particular, more than 55% of women, 20 to 29 years old and over 70 years old, or those below elementary school, with a college degree, and neutral people did not evaluate Huang Shijie's suitability to serve as Taoyuan mayor. This may be because they have less impression of Huang Shijie.
In terms of optimism about the election, 56.4% are optimistic about Zhang Shanzheng's election, and 25.4% are optimistic about Huang Shijie's election. According to observations, all groups of people are obviously optimistic about Zhang Shanzheng's chances of being elected. Even 51.4% of supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party hold this view.
Regarding voting intention, according to the poll, 84.2% of people in Taoyuan City said they would go to vote, of which 62.3% would definitely go and 21.9% might go. 77.4% of pan-green people said they would definitely vote, 73.3% of pan-blue people and 59.4% of People's Party supporters said they would definitely vote, while only 42.8% of neutral people said they would definitely vote. In addition, 81.3% of Huang Shijie's supporters said they would definitely vote, while only 69.9% of Zhang Shanzheng's supporters said.
If voting is conducted now, it is estimated that Zhang Shanzheng will get 53.8% to 57.5% of the votes, Huang Shijie will get 42.5% to 46.2%, and Zhang will lead by 7.6% to 15%. This is the possible gap under different voting rates. The estimated vote rate calculation includes the combined calculation of multiple parameters such as voting intention and intensity, past voting results, etc.
This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company to conduct telephone interviews. The survey targets people registered in Taoyuan City and over the age of 20. It was conducted from November 4 to November 6. 1,074 people were successfully interviewed (751 people on residential phones and 323 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% is ±3.0%.
