Taoyuan's latest poll" Huang Shijie lags behind by 4.1%. Experts: The flaw is lack of popularity

The People's Association today released the latest poll on the Taoyuan mayoral election. The Kuomintang's Taoyuan mayoral candidate Zhang Shanzheng, who is seeking re-election, has 36.9% support, leading the DPP candidate Huang Shijie's 32.8%, with a gap of 4.1 percentage points between the two sides. Huang Qinglong, chairman of the Trustees Association, analyzed that Zhang Shanzheng's support was only 4.1 percentage points higher than his opponent, which was already within the margin of error. Huang Shijie's flaw was that he was not well-known enough.

According to the poll results, if they vote now, Zhang Shanzheng's support is 36.9%, Huang Shijie's support is 32.8%, 6.3% will not vote or vote invalid, and 24.0% will not give a clear answer.

After cross-analysis, the 50 to 59-year-old group, those with college and graduate degrees, People's Party supporters, and pan-blue and neutral people support Zhang Shanzheng significantly more than Huang Shijie. Groups such as those with junior high school education or below and those from the pan-green category are obviously leaning toward Huang Shijie.

The poll shows that among people who will definitely vote, 42.7% will vote for Huang Shijie, 41.4% will vote for Zhang Shanzheng, and 14.9% will not give a clear answer. Among those who said they might vote, 36.7% voted for Zhang Shanzheng and 23.4% voted for Huang Shijie.

Huang Qinglong said that Zhang Shanzheng’s support was only 4.1 percentage points higher than his opponent, which was already within the margin of error. 81.3% of Huang Shijie's supporters said they would definitely vote, while only 69.9% of Zhang Shanzheng's supporters said they would "change the party and give it a try" 33.8%, slightly higher than 31.0% "continue to vote for the KMT". Although Zhang Shanzheng's vote rate is estimated to be ahead of Huang Shijie's, it cannot be used as a prediction of the final voting result.

Huang Qinglong analyzed that Huang Shijie’s suitability as mayor or his popularity for being elected are far inferior to Zhang Shanzheng’s. However, judging from the polls, Huang Shijie’s biggest flaw is his lack of popularity. Many voters do not know Huang Shijie at all, including women, 2 More than 55% of voters aged 0 to 29, over 70 years old, as well as those with elementary school or junior college education, neutral citizens, etc., have no evaluation of Huang Shijie's suitability to be mayor. "That is, they don't know whether he is good or bad at all, and they don't know him at all."

Huang Qinglong pointed out that ocean currents have an impact on the Taoyuan mayoral election. The election campaign is entering the final two weeks. If Huang Shijie can join forces with the DPP Taipei mayor candidate Shen Boyang to build momentum and strengthen the support of Hakka voters, Huang Shijie will still have a chance to narrow the gap with his opponents.

This poll was entrusted by the Trustees Association to Mr. Dai Li'an to be responsible for questionnaire design and analysis, and Beacon Market Research Company to conduct telephone interviews. The survey targets people registered in Taoyuan City and over the age of 20. It was conducted from November 4 to November 6. 1,074 people were successfully interviewed (751 people on residential phones and 323 on mobile phones). The maximum sampling error of the combined sample at a reliability level of 95% is ±3.0%.