Somalia general elections next year in April and presidential elections in May... Security instability and political conflict are variables
Al-Shabab's threats and differences of opinion within the political circles raise uncertainty about the conduct of elections.
Quick Look
- Somalia's Electoral Commission has announced the schedule for parliamentary elections in April and presidential elections in May next year.
- However, it is unclear whether the election will be held as planned due to the threat from Al-Shabaab and differences of opinion on the election method among political circles.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Somalia has not been able to hold direct national elections since the collapse of the Barre regime in 1991 due to civil war and tribal conflict. The current council is made up of members elected by tribal leaders.
Somalia has announced a schedule for electing a new president and members of parliament.
However, part of the country is controlled by Al-Shabab, an Islamist militant group linked to Al-Qaeda, and there are differences of opinion within the political circles regarding specific election methods, such as the introduction of direct national elections, so some predict that it is unclear whether the elections can be held as planned.
According to AFP on the 15th (local time), the National Election Commission of Somalia (NIEBC) announced in a statement that the parliamentary election will be held on April 15 next year and the presidential election on May 15.
According to the revised constitution that took effect early this year, the 275 members of the House of Representatives are elected through a one-person, one-vote system in which the people vote directly and an open party list proportional representation system.
The president is elected by the Federal Assembly, which is comprised of the House of Representatives and 54 senators representing each federal state.
Current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's four-year term was originally scheduled to expire in May, but parliament passed a constitutional amendment in March to extend the presidential term by one year.
The opposition is opposing this constitutional amendment, and last June, opposition-supporting militias opposing the constitutional amendment to extend the presidential term engaged in fighting in the capital, Mogadishu.
In Somalia, free elections based on a multi-party system were halted in 1969 when General Siad Barre staged a coup and ruled for 22 years.
Although the Barre regime collapsed in 1991, general and direct elections could not be held at the national level due to continued chaos, including civil war, tribal conflict, and the weakening of the central government's governing power.
Currently, the parliament is made up of members elected by tribal leaders who share power, and the president is elected by the parliament.
Since 2016, several political forces have promised to introduce universal suffrage, but implementation has been delayed due to security instability and political battles, including the expansion of Al-Shabab's influence.
In addition, Puntland, a semi-autonomous state, and Jubaland, which is currently at odds with the federal government, are opposed to the revised constitution itself, which stipulates universal suffrage with one person, one vote. Therefore, separate elections different from those of Somalia's central government may be held in these states, policy research institute FTL Somalia analyzed.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
There is a possibility that the election schedule will be further postponed due to differences of opinion on the election method.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- How do we control the threat of Al-Shabaab?
- What is the solution to the conflict with states that oppose the revised Constitution?
