Accountants say, “Economic expansion continues in the fourth quarter…expecting strong semiconductor exports”

Certified public accountants predicted that the economic expansion will continue in the fourth quarter of this year, thanks to strong semiconductor exports.

According to the 'Certified Public Accountants' Due Diligence Index (CPA BSI)' announced by the Accounting Policy Institute of the Society of Certified Public Accountants of Korea on the 7th, accountants evaluated the current BSI for the third quarter of this year and the forecast BSI for the fourth quarter at 113, respectively.

BSI is based on 100. If it exceeds 100, it means that the economy is improving, and if it is below it, it means that the economy is worsening.

Status BSI is evaluated to have exceeded the standard and the economic expansion trend has continued. Despite adverse factors such as geopolitical instability, prices, and tariffs, it only fell by 2 points compared to the previous quarter.

The researcher analyzed the impact of semiconductor-centered exports, production, and investment on the real economy. In July, facility investment increased by 7.5% compared to the previous month, and major indicators improved, including a 0.8 point increase in the cyclical value of the coincident index.

It is expected that the economic expansion trend will continue in the fourth quarter, with strong exports based on expectations of year-end global information technology (IT) demand and technological competitiveness.

However, there are concerns about increased financial costs due to exchange rate volatility and uncertainty in global monetary policy.

Accountants pointed out that major detailed factors that will affect the Korean economy over the next year include ▲global economic trends (31%) ▲government policy changes (15%) ▲raw material prices and inflation (13%) ▲geopolitical conflicts (12%).

Current status by industry BSI was evaluated as positive in most industries, excluding petrochemicals and construction, including electronics (155), shipbuilding (139), information and communication (121), food and beverage (114), and machinery (114).

Industry outlook BSI also showed electronics (149), shipbuilding (132), and information and communications (127).