Who is in the lead, Su Qiaohui or Li Sichuan? Wu Jingyi reveals the average gap between 4 polls

Two weeks before the 2026 nine-in-one general election, the New Taipei City mayoral election continues to attract attention. However, multiple recent polls have shown different results. Some show that DPP candidate Su Qiaohui is in the lead, while others show that KMT candidate Li Sichuan has the upper hand. In this regard, media person Wu Jingyi analyzed four polls and pointed out that if averaged across institutions, Su Qiaohui leads Li Sichuan with 43.03% and 37.63%, with a gap of 5.4 percentage points between the two sides. However, if the survey with the largest gap is excluded, the lead narrows to 2.23 percentage points.

Wu Jingyi posted on Facebook that Chang You-tsung, a professor at the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, recently talked about the concept of "cross-institutional averaging" on "The KK Show". Since the sampling methods, questionnaire designs and weighting methods of each poll are different, looking at one survey alone is easily affected by the "institutional effect", so the results of different institutions should be compared comprehensively.

Based on this concept, Wu Jingyi conducted a simple average of four polls from "Mirror News", "United Daily News", "Fengcan Media" and key surveys. The result was that Su Qiaohui's support was 43.03%, Li Sichuan's 37.63%, and Su Qiaohui led by 5.4 percentage points. However, if the largest gap between the two sides is temporarily excluded, Su Qiaohui's 41.47% and Li Sichuan's 39.23%, the gap narrows to 2.23 percentage points, showing that different survey results still have a significant impact on the average.

In terms of regional support, Wu Jingyi pointed out that the "United Daily News" poll showed that Su Qiaohui has higher support in Banqiao, Sanchong, Luzhou and Shulin, while Li Sichuan has an advantage in Zhonghe, Yonghe and Xindian; however, the survey by "Fengcan Media" showed different results in Zhonghe and Xindian, reflecting the differences in surveys by various agencies, and the trends of undecided voters are also worth observing.

Wu Jingyi emphasized, "Polls are not fortune-telling, let alone picking your favorite numbers!" Facing the survey results of different organizations, we should examine the complete data and survey methods, rather than just relying on a single poll to determine who will win.

She also reminded that starting from November 18th, there will be a restricted period for the release of pre-election polls, and the final results will not be known until the voting is counted on November 28th. Voters should comprehensively observe various data before the polls are closed and avoid directly regarding short-term poll changes as election results.