
法國興業銀行警告,黃金週一暴跌近170美元至4114.88美元,反彈未能站穩200日移動均線,下跌動能仍占優勢;若無法重新收復4315美元附近的近期高點,跌勢可能進一步擴大,但該行維持中長期看漲預期,預估2026年第4季金價升至4750美元,2027年全年均價達5125美元。
AI-generated summary
黃金週一因油價走高和美債殖利率飆升而暴跌近170美元,收於4114.88美元,法國興業銀行發表技術分析報告。
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕受油價走高,美債殖利率飆升,黃金週一暴跌近170美元,每盎司收4114.88美元,法國興業銀行(Société Générale)警告,金價反彈未能重新站穩200日移動均線,下跌動能仍占優勢;若無法重新收復每盎司4315美元附近的近期高點,跌勢可能進一步擴大。
外媒報導,法興指出,金價目前正逼近重要支撐區域,下一道支撐位落在4095美元附近,另外3960至3940美元則是6月、7月低點所在區間,被視為後續走勢的關鍵區域。若金價持續回落,市場可能在上述區域尋找買盤承接。
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從技術面來看,法興認為金價近期反彈始終難以穩穩站上200日均線,顯示下跌趨勢尚未扭轉。其中,4315美元附近成為判斷金價能否重新走強的重要分水嶺,一旦無法收復,金價可能進一步測試下方支撐。
不過,法興並未因此改變對黃金中長期走勢的看法。該行認為,央行持續買進黃金、實際利率走低預期、美元走弱,以及黃金ETF資金回流,仍可為金價提供支撐。全球黃金ETF持倉已回升至接近3000噸,被法興視為投資需求重新建立的訊號。
法興表示,黃金在多資產配置中仍扮演重要角色,市場重新出現「貨幣貶值交易」,地緣政治碎片化,以及對美國財政與貨幣信譽的疑慮,也讓資金進一步分散傳統儲備資產。央行持續買金、減少美國公債曝險,則反映替代儲備資產需求受到支撐。
展望後市,法興維持對黃金的看漲預期,預估金價2026年第4季將升至4750美元,2027年第2季達到5000美元,第3季進一步升至5250美元;2026年全年均價預估為4500美元,2027年全年均價則為5125美元。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
黃金價格將在2026年第4季升至4750美元
Likely · Within months
黃金價格將在2027年第2季達到5000美元,第3季進一步升至5250美元
Possible · Within months
2026年全年黃金均價預估為4500美元,2027年全年均價則為5125美元
Possible · Within months

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