
德國另類選擇黨(AfD)在薩克森-安哈特邦議會選舉中獲得44.5%得票率,大幅領先基民盟的18.5%,有望成為二戰後首個在德國邦政府執政的極右翼政黨,但受其他政黨「防火牆」原則限制,能否組閣仍存變數。
AI-generated summary
德國另類選擇黨為極右翼、反移民政黨,長期被德國主流政黨以「防火牆」原則拒絕合作。薩克森-安哈特邦為前東德地區,人口老化與勞動力短缺問題突出,經濟高度依賴外籍勞工。
最新出口民調顯示,極右翼、反移民的「德國另類選擇黨」(AfD)6日在全球矚目的薩克森—安哈特邦(Saxony-Anhalt)議會選舉中,取得歷史性勝利,得票率高達44.5%,不僅大幅領先現任德國總理梅爾茨(Friedrich Merz)所屬基督教民主黨(CDU)的18.5%,更有望成為自二次世界大戰以來,首個在德國地區邦政府取得執政權的極右翼政黨。
英國「衛報」報導,儘管得票率驚人,但德國另類選擇黨最終能否順利執政仍有變數。由於德國所有主流政黨皆堅守拒絕與該黨合作的「防火牆」(Brandmauer)原則,其首席候選人西格蒙德(Ulrich Siegmund)選前已明確表態,除非取得絕對多數席次,否則拒絕與其他政黨組建聯合政府。
目前選票仍在加緊計算中,若多個小黨成功跨越5%的得票門檻進入議會,該黨恐難以達成單獨過半的目標;反之,若小黨全數落馬,西格蒙德將可直接掌握該邦執政權。
在此次選戰中,西格蒙德成功將選民對前東德時代的懷舊情懷(Ostalgie),轉化為實際支持。他承諾一旦執政,將立即啟動大規模的移民「再轉移與驅逐」行動,並推動極具爭議的政策,包括禁止公立學校懸掛LGBTQ彩虹旗、全面停止興建新風力發電廠,以及要求學校恢復演唱德國國歌。
然而,德國經濟研究所警告,薩克森-安哈特邦正面臨人口老化與勞動力短缺,排外政策恐對高度仰賴外籍勞工的當地經濟造成災難性打擊。
外界也擔憂,被德國情報機構列為「右翼極端主義」且立場親俄的德國另類選擇黨,恐將機密情報洩漏給莫斯科。
本次選舉的投票率也創下76.5%的歷史新高,選舉結果無疑對總理梅爾茨帶來巨大政治壓力。梅爾茨政府原本期望透過緊縮移民政策來挽回民心,但顯然未能平息選民對經濟停滯與生活現狀的不滿。若德國另類選擇黨最終順利在薩克森—安哈特邦突圍執政,不僅將徹底重塑德國的政治版圖,更將成為該黨鎖定未來聯邦大選、爭取全國執政權的重要跳板。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
德國另類選擇黨將在薩克森-安哈特邦嘗試組建少數派政府或尋求少數黨支持以維持執政
Possible · Within weeks
德國聯邦層面將加強對薩克森-安哈特邦的政治監管與法律審查
Likely · Within months

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