Elections in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt: the far-right AfD leads by 44.2%, with uncertain future for power

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) The election campaign in the eastern German state of Sachsen-Anhalt and its possible future governing structure have attracted unprecedented attention. The reason is that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party may gain power in a German federal state for the first time. According to previous polls, the party's support rate has exceeded 40% for a long time.

According to preliminary exit poll results released late local time, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won an overwhelming advantage with 44.2% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which previously dominated power in the state, received only 18% of the vote; the Social Democratic Party (SPD) received 9%, the Green Party 8.6%; the Left Party 9%; the BSW (BSW) 5.1%; and the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) 2%, failing to reach the 5% threshold required to enter the parliament.

The state is currently governed by a coalition of the CDU, SPD and FDP.

If the Vaasa coalition's vote share remains above 5% in the final results and enters parliament to participate in seat allocation, the Alternative for Germany will not be able to obtain an absolute majority. Judging from the preliminary vote counting results at around 8:30 pm on the 6th, it is highly likely that this will be the case. If it cannot obtain a majority of seats, the AfD will have to find partners to form a coalition government.

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During the campaign, all other parties demonstrated their reluctance to align with the AfD. The party's gubernatorial candidate Ulrich Siegmund himself recently reiterated that he would only compete for the governorship if the AfD wins an absolute majority and can govern alone. But in an interview with German television on election night, he blurred the issue.

Sigmund said that we “always extend a hand of cooperation to all forces that are willing to work with us to achieve a fundamental political transition in the country.” However, he stressed that his party will never give up its core principles for this, "There are some issues that are absolutely non-negotiable."

If the AfD is not considered, another option is for the CDU to join forces with other parties to form a minority government. However, given that the CDU refuses to join forces with the Left Party, even if it unites with all other parties, it may still lose the seat ratio to the AfD.

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Therefore, even after the official vote count is released later and the distribution of parliamentary seats becomes clearer, which party is likely to carry out the extremely difficult task of forming a government, and whether it can succeed, are full of unknowns.

The turnout in this state election was as high as 78.1%, significantly higher than the 60% in the previous election in 2021.