Goldman Sachs warns of the risks of shipping disruptions and their impact on oil prices
The bank expects oil to fall to $80 once exports return to normal, amid fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East
Quick Look
Dan Struyven of Goldman Sachs warned of the risks of shipping disruptions to oil prices, expecting them to fall to $80 per barrel once exports return, while concerns about Middle East supplies persist.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Escalating tit-for-tat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas raise concerns about global energy supplies.
Dan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the group, said that developments in recent days indicate that the risks of expanding and increasing shipping disruptions have become a major factor that should be monitored.
He added that the bank expects, in return, that oil prices will decline to about $80 per barrel if the region’s exports return to normal levels. Brent crude was trading near $97 a barrel, according to Bloomberg data.
The group suggested that supply shocks in the markets for natural gas and refined oil products, such as diesel, would be more severe than their impact on the crude market, making them better tools for hedging geopolitical risks.
Oil prices continue to rise amid fears of long-term disruption to Middle East supplies, with the escalation of mutual attacks between the United States and Iran on ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and other regions.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Oil prices will fall to about $80 per barrel once exports return to normal levels
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- Will shipping disruptions expand to other sea lanes?
- What are alternative measures to ensure stable energy flows?
