Warnings of deaths linked to the El Niño phenomenon and trials for ISIS suspects in Iraq

Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impacts Laboratory said on Wednesday that the extreme heat resulting from the "super" El Niño phenomenon this year could lead to up to 451,000 additional deaths around the world in the six months until February 2027.

The laboratory stated, in a report, that the number of extremely hot days is likely to increase by 44 percent, compared to normal years, and said that the countries that are likely to suffer the largest number of additional heat-related deaths, in the period from September 2026 to February 2027, are Nigeria with 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with about 19,300 deaths, then Sudan with 17,600 deaths.

The heat wave in the Sahel region of Africa, which includes Niger and Chad in addition to Nigeria and Sudan, is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths during the six-month period.

Researchers expect the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia to see a combined 19,400 additional deaths.

The number of excess deaths may rise even more if the El Niño phenomenon extends into 2027, as major regions in the Northern Hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, will be very vulnerable during the summer months.

The laboratory described the El Niño phenomenon this year as a “message from the future” informing us of the temperatures that will become normal within just a few decades.

The laboratory indicated that emergency response efforts should be directed to the highest priority areas; To reduce heat-related deaths in the coming months.

“This report allows policymakers to identify where emergency action can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” said Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab.

On Tuesday, the United Nations warned of the many health consequences of the El Niño phenomenon, stressing that this natural climate event poses a “major threat.”

The World Health Organization explained that among the health risks that may result from this phenomenon are severe heat waves that may exacerbate some diseases, poor air quality due to fires in particular, in addition to the worsening malnutrition and cholera caused by drought and floods.

El Niño may also lead to an increase in the spread of mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, and chikungunya, given that this climate phenomenon creates conditions for heavy rains and floods.

Director of the Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations and Climate Change Unit at the World Health Organization, Teresa Zakaria, said during a press conference in Geneva, “It is possible to predict the health consequences of the El Niño phenomenon, and there is an opportunity for us to act now, before these risks turn into a crisis.”

She added: “We call on governments, partners and communities to invest without delay, prepare and take proactive measures, in order to save lives and maintain health care services.”

The World Health Organization calls on countries to improve the preparedness of their health systems, enhance their ability to monitor diseases, ensure continuity of care, and provide stocks of medical equipment in areas most at risk.

The current El Niño wave, which may become the most violent ever, has previously led to severe weather conditions in various parts of the world.

Zakaria believed that this phenomenon constitutes a “major threat to public health.”

She expected to “monitor health consequences in various parts of the world,” and believed that the most severe of these consequences would be recorded where “climate shocks intersect with the fragility of health systems, poor access to care, food insecurity, population displacement, and humanitarian crises.”

The United Nations World Meteorological Organization warned in early September that the current El Niño wave may be the “strongest” recorded since this climate phenomenon began to be measured four decades ago, and its next bulletin is scheduled to be issued at the end of November.

Armel Castellan, a consultant at the joint office between the World Meteorological Organization and the World Health Organization, explained to reporters that its effects are expected to become more severe, and that its repercussions will continue beyond its expected peak at the end of the year.

The combination of El Niño and the consequences of human-induced climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Castellan noted that “its impact coincides with already very high reference temperatures globally, which is therefore a double blow, and the reality is different and unprecedented compared to what happened in 2015, the last time the anomalies in sea surface temperatures associated with (El Niño) reached such high levels.”

In anticipation of the El Niño phenomenon, the World Meteorological Organization and its partners are seeking to improve coordination between meteorologists and health authorities, so that these authorities receive weather forecasts in a timely manner and in a directly usable format.

On Sunday, 6 French nationals appeared before the judiciary in Iraq. Thousands of people suspected of belonging to ISIS of different nationalities are detained awaiting trial.

The Karkh court judge read before the defendants the indictment against them and then assigned lawyers to defend the accused while allowing the two parties to meet, and then it was decided to adjourn the first trial session to the fifth of next month.

An Iraqi judicial source confirmed on Thursday that the six French nationals, whose identities were not revealed, are among the first group of 47 French citizens who were transferred to Iraq in 2025 from neighboring Syria, where the organization seized vast areas starting in 2014, before it was defeated from the two countries in which it committed massacres and atrocities.

Among them is Adrian Guill, who is known for his terrorist activity and who, in particular on behalf of ISIS, claimed responsibility for the attack that was carried out in Nice (southern France) and claimed the lives of 86 people on July 14, 2016, the French National Day.

In recent years, Iraqi courts have issued death sentences and life imprisonment, on the grounds of belonging to a “terrorist group,” in cases of terrorism and murder, against people, including foreigners.

In 2019, death sentences were issued against 11 French citizens, and their sentences were reduced on appeal to life imprisonment.

Human rights groups denounced the urgent nature of these trials held in “terrorism” cases, noting that they did not adhere to the necessary procedural guarantees.

There are still many testimonies awaiting investigation about the brutal acts of violence committed by the extremist organization in Iraq, where it left many mass graves, all of which have not yet been discovered, and some of which have not been opened.

French lawyers who were informed of the approaching date of the hearings called on Paris to return its citizens who may face the death penalty “urgently.”

In a statement published on Thursday, lawyers Marie Douzet, Mathieu Bagard, Victoire Daumier, Pauline Gamba-Martini and Baptiste Vachon denounced the lack of transparency in judicial procedures in Iraq and the inability to represent clients who, in their view, are deprived of their right to defend themselves.

Iraqi prisons, already crowded with members suspected of belonging to ISIS, now contain thousands of additional prisoners who were transferred there since last year from Syria.

In early 2026, more than 5,700 people of about 60 nationalities suspected of belonging to ISIS were transferred to Iraq after spending years in Syrian camps run by Kurdish forces. Among them are at least five French citizens, including one who was a minor when his family joined the organization.

In early September, the Iraqi judiciary announced the completion of the interrogation of more than 5,700 people suspected of belonging to ISIS, and “the transition to the next judicial stage of referring them to the trial court.”

The investigations resulted in “the exposure of a number of highly dangerous elements (...) and first-ranking leaders” in ISIS, and “information related to serious crimes with an international dimension committed against the Yazidi community,” according to the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council.

The Yazidis are a Kurdish-speaking minority that follows a special religion. They were mainly concentrated in northern Iraq before they were subjected to attacks and persecution by ISIS starting on August 3, 2014, and their members fled en masse after that.

The investigations also led to the surrender of a Finn and an American to the authorities of their countries in April, and the release of 7 Iraqis, while “the necessary procedures are being completed to release 457 detainees of Syrian nationality against whom no evidence has been proven that requires the continuation of judicial procedures against them,” according to the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council.

ISIS controlled large areas in northern and western Iraq starting in 2014, until Iraqi forces were able to defeat it in 2017, with the support of the international coalition led by Washington.

In Syria, where the organization was defeated in 2019, thousands of people suspected of belonging to extremist groups were detained with their families, including foreigners, in prisons and camps administered by the “Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)” until January 2026.