The new Secretary General of Iran's National Security Council recently said with confidence: “As long as America does not change its behavior and does not accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Mohsen Rezaei said last week. However, the Swiss newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung points out that the extent of Tehran's actual control over the strait has become highly questionable.
Since May, the United States has escorted several oil tankers at night through the southern passage off the Omani coast. According to the Axios news website, between 15 and 20 ships daily cross this narrow sea lane under the cover of darkness, heavily guarded by warships and the aircraft carrier George Washington, in addition to fighter planes and attack helicopters.
According to statements by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, approximately 9 million barrels of crude oil are currently passing through this waterway daily, which is equivalent to half the volume of flows that were transported before the outbreak of war. Henning Gloystein, an expert at the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consultancy, does not think this estimate is far from reality, stressing: “Between five and ten million barrels of crude oil are currently crossing Omani waters per day.”
Gloystein explains that shipping companies wishing to cross the Strait of Hormuz via the Omani route can coordinate in advance with the US Navy, as ships are provided with specific coordinates and timings, during which they sail with satellite communication devices turned off, and are protected by US Navy air defenses throughout the sailing period on this route.
However, American protection is not completely infallible; Iran has targeted with fire at least 15 ships that have taken the southern route since the beginning of June. Accordingly, Donald Trump's announcement that his country has imposed complete control over the waterway is considered an exaggeration, but at the same time these operations demonstrate the decline of the stranglehold that Iran had imposed on the Strait of Hormuz.
The volume of oil flowing through the strait fluctuates; According to Gloystein, only four or five tankers pass through on some days with a load ranging between half a million and one million barrels, while the number rises on other days. The commodity expert explains: “This is not a sustainable solution in the long term, but it is one of the main reasons why oil prices have stabilized and not jumped sharply despite the faltering negotiating path.”
This American escort coincided with the destruction of Iranian radar facilities along the coast, which Washington targeted in the final days of its air campaign. Without these radars, Iranian missiles lost their ability to hit their targets accurately. Resorting to night escort also reflects an American conviction of Tehran's weakness in tracking and targeting naval vessels in the dark.
While the United States succeeded in destroying fixed radar stations with relative ease, Iran still possesses mobile radar systems that are difficult to detect, leaving its armed forces with the ability to launch attacks against ships.
Analysts believe that operating US naval patrols in the Gulf will impose heavy financial and logistical burdens in the long term, especially after a major US naval base in Bahrain was severely damaged by Iranian strikes.
According to the New York Times, logistical supply ships designated to support destroyers and anti-aircraft vessels are now forced to set off from the British island of Diego Garcia, located in southern India, a journey that takes about five days to reach the Gulf of Oman.
Despite these logistical challenges, the commander of a frigate in the German Navy, who preferred to withhold his identity, confirmed in press statements that the American fleet possesses sufficient pieces and equipment to continue these missions for very extended periods.
The report of the Swiss newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung believes that these escort ships represent a pivotal part of a strategic shift adopted by Washington in its confrontation with Iran. Instead of focusing on air strikes, the United States is currently intensifying its economic pressure in parallel with the naval blockade.
Donald Trump declared Thursday an “Economic Victory Day” over the Tehran regime, warning that any country that provides a “lifeline” to Iran will incur heavy economic costs.
Observers are anticipating the imposition of severe US sanctions packages targeting Tehran's trading partners, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent announced his intention to reveal a detailed plan on Monday to tighten the economic isolation imposed on Iran.
However, Washington's ability to take deterrent punitive measures against Beijing remains in doubt, as China is Tehran's most prominent trading partner, as it alone accounts for about 80% of Iranian crude oil exports, as well as being the main supplier of rare earth elements to American markets.
In this context, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington stressed that "sanctions and pressure will not lead to a settlement of the Iranian issue." If Washington punishes Beijing because of its trade relations with Tehran, this threatens to spark a comprehensive economic war at the international level.
