In the Week 6 edition of "Monday Night Football," the San Francisco 49ers play host to the Washington Commanders.
San Francisco is riding high atop the NFC West with a 5-0 record, having defeated the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in a barnburner last week. The Niners have battled injuries on both sides of the ball all season, yet have remained unbeaten. They can create a three-game lead in the division with a victory on Monday night.
Washington is coming off an absolute debacle last Sunday against the New York Giants, wherein the Commanders had a chance to kick a field goal to win the game at the end of overtime, but bungled the clock management as badly as any team you'll ever see. The Commies are just 1-3-1 entering this game, and they're looking to avoid falling further into the basement in the NFC East.
Will the Niners continue to roll, or will the Commanders pull off the upset? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch 49ers vs. Commanders live
Date: Monday, Oct. 19 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
TV: ESPN/ABC | Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -7.5, O/U 52.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
When the Commanders have the ball
Jayden Daniels looked no worse for wear last week in his return from another dislocated elbow. He completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, while also rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Had he and the entire offense not totally brain-farted at the end of overtime, it would have been a wildly encouraging performance for Washington's rest-of-season outlook.
While Daniels has been excellent when taking off to run in his three starts, Washington's running backs have been extremely inefficient on the ground. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (who was ruled out for this game after not practicing all week), Rachaad White, Austin Ekeler and the recently-released Kaytron Allen have combined to average just 3.7 yards per carry. The offensive line has created little push up front, with the backs collectively gaining just 0.95 yards before contact per carry, according to Tru Media, and the backs themselves have broken tackles at the second-lowest rate in all of football.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have allowed just 3.7 yards per rush to enemy running backs, with great tackling being the primary method of limiting yardage. Backs have gained 1.47 yards per carry before contact (an above-average mark), but only 2.22 yards after contact thanks to the lowest broken-tackle rate in the league. As a result, San Francisco has allowed only two explosive runs all season, per Tru Media, the fewest in the NFL.
San Francisco has also been mostly strong against the pass, checking in 10th in opponents' EPA per dropback and 5th in opponents' success rate. The 49ers have allowed quarterbacks to complete only 64.4% of their passes at an average of 6.1 yards per attempt, with just five touchdowns and three interceptions in five games.
It's tough to know what to make of Washington's passing game because it hasn't been at full strength for most of the season. Daniels missed two-and-a-half games. Chig Okonwko missed two. Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs each missed one and saw their snaps limited in another. The Daniels-McLaurin-Diggs trio has shared the field for only 57 plays so far this season, according to Tru Media. Daniels is just 15 of 30 for 129 yards on those plays, but he has thrown for three scores and scrambled for 62 yards.
Daniels should, in theory, see at least some clean pockets with the 49ers again playing without Nick Bosa, but Washington's offensive line has yielded pressure on over 38% of dropbacks so far this season, so the Niners could have a chance to get into Daniels' lap and force him into tough throws and mistakes. With the generally sticky coverage the San Francisco corners have played so far this season, it could be tough sledding for Washington in the passing game on Monday night.
When the 49ers have the ball
San Francisco has been the league's fourth-most efficient offense by EPA per play, according to Tru Media, ranking second with the pass and 14th with the run. Brock Purdy is playing at as high a level as any quarterback in football, completing 69% of his passes at an average of 8.4 yards per attempt with a league-high 13 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Purdy also has a 57.9% passing success rate, which ranks as the best in the league.
Purdy has done that despite hemorrhaging wide receivers throughout the season. Ricky Pearsall was lost for the year in training camp. Christian Kirk (listed as questionable for this week) has yet to make his 49er debut. De'Zhaun Stribling was injured in Week 1. Demarcus Robinson went down in Week 2. Deebo Samuel and Jacob Cowing were knocked out of last week's win over the Seahawks. Mike Evans has been playing through a painful rib injury. (He's also questionable for Monday night.) George Kittle spent the first two weeks ramping up to a full workload after last season's Achilles tear. And yet, here the 49ers are.
Washington, meanwhile, has been one of the league's friendliest pass defenses. Every team the Commanders have faced has thrown for at least 257 net yards. Four of the five teams have gone more than 300 and two of them exceeded 400. The Commanders have allowed opponents to complete 65.2% of passes at an average of 7.1 yards per attempt, with 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The 103.9 passer rating against the Commanders to date is the sixth-worst mark in the league. It's very easy to see San Francisco finding success through the air so long as Evans suits up for the game.
Christian McCaffrey is sharing the workload in the run game far more this season than in years past, with 61 carries for 286 yards againt Kaelon Black's 37 carries for 136 yards. McCaffrey's 4.7 yards-per-carry average is far better than what he posted over the last two years (4.0 and 3.9), and his rushing success rate of 45.9% is seventh-best out of 48 qualifying running backs. That figure is the second-best mark of his career, behind only the 2023 season, during which he led the NFL in rushing yards.
The Commanders have actually been stingy against the run this year, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry, with opposing backs limited to 0.69 yards per attempt before contact by the defensive front. Washington having similar success stopping the run here is important because it could make the 49ers one-dimensional, but the Commanders' pass-funnel defense also plays right into San Francisco's hands because of how efficient the 49ers' passing game has been so far this year. Purdy and Co. should eat, even if McCaffrey doesn't.
Prediction
