The Fifth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee concluded with no sign of appointing Xi Jinping’s successor

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) Senior leaders of the Communist Party of China held the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China from October 26 to 29. The main topic was strict governance of the party. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and President of China, hopes that while continuing to deepen the anti-corruption campaign, officials at all levels can show higher loyalty and subjective initiative.

According to the communiqué after the closing of the plenary session on the 29th, the meeting reviewed and approved the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues on Persistently Promoting Comprehensive and Strict Governance of the Party." The communiqué also mentioned that “the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has used great political courage and strong responsibility to face the severe reality that the party’s leadership was weakened, the party was not strict and effective, and some problems within the party were shocking.” The communiqué of the plenary session repeatedly emphasized the need to "persistently promote comprehensive and strict governance of the party."

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Kerry Brown, director of the China Institute at King's College London, pointed out that due to the current international situation and China's domestic political and economic conditions, Xi Jinping urgently needs to use high-pressure anti-corruption and enhance official loyalty to minimize unstable factors. "And this trend will continue to grow. Without discipline and unity, top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party are worried that they may fall into division and instability like other parts of the world today."

In the history of the Communist Party of China, the Central Committee Plenary Session one year before the Party Congress often emphasized the content of strict party governance and strengthening system construction. Despite this, Brown still believes that this year's central plenary session once again emphasized "strict party governance" and there is a certain degree of specialness, because the CCP now has a particularly great need for stability. "The stakes are much higher now than they were in, say, 2001 or 2016. The stakes are much higher. China is now a much stronger and more important player. In terms of the Sino-US relationship, the two sides are almost evenly matched at the technological level, and in some areas, China may even be in the lead. So the opportunities for China are much greater; and if it fails, the cost will be extremely heavy."

Sacrifice the subjective initiative of officials in exchange for stability?

In addition to maintaining a high-pressure anti-corruption stance, the CCP theoretical magazine "Qiushi" disclosed an internal meeting speech by Xi Jinping in mid-October, in which he mentioned preventing and cleaning up "two-faced officials" whose words and deeds are inconsistent. That is, they claim to obey the central government's instructions, but in fact they "act in disguise" and pursue "individualism", which they consider to be "political opportunists." Xi Jinping also criticized "good old" officials who, under the guise of maintaining unity, take no action when problems are discovered.

In this regard, Brown believes that China's political system is inherently faced with a dilemma: if officials at all levels are expected to be brave in innovation and bold in solving problems, corruption may become prevalent due to deregulation; if the emphasis is on "strict party governance" and a high-pressure posture is maintained, the subjective initiative or ability of officials at all levels and even the military to proactively solve problems will be sacrificed.

Zhuang Jiaying, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, pointed out that under Xi Jinping's rule, officials at all levels have relatively small decision-making functions and are mainly responsible for execution. Therefore, the reduction of officials' subjective initiative will not cause too big a problem. "I think Xi Jinping hopes that officials at all levels can move forward aggressively and aggressively when performing specific tasks, but he does not want these officials to be too assertive and pose a challenge to the overall situation set by Xi Jinping. Therefore, the enthusiasm that Xi Jinping expects mainly refers to the implementation level, not the decision-making level."

Brown of King's College London further pointed out that in the face of international geopolitical pressure and weak domestic economic growth, Xi Jinping is likely to be willing to slightly sacrifice the bureaucracy's ability to act in exchange for control and stability. "It's not too late to solve those problems in the future. As long as we stay united, we can survive at least until tomorrow, right? But if there is no unity internally, it may be over on the same day. The Chinese Communist Party is extremely risk-averse, as if it is an institution specifically responsible for risk management. So far, this approach has really worked in many aspects. China is still innovating, and various mechanisms are still functioning; China's economy is not in a catastrophic situation - although it is not particularly good, it is by no means a mess. If you look at the outside world, it is a mess."

Does Xi Jinping lack the confidence to appoint a successor?

Currently, Xi Jinping is 73 years old, so the outside world is also paying close attention to the personnel arrangements for this Central Plenary Session. Xi Jinping is likely to be confirmed at next fall's party congress and continue to serve as the next general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee until 2032. Xi Jinping pushed for constitutional changes in 2018, breaking decades of term limits for China's top leaders.

Both analysts pointed out to DW that the succession issue is also an important reason why Xi Jinping is willing to pay a certain price to maintain stability. "There is always a risk of division within the party over disagreements, especially when it comes to succession," said Brown of King's College London. "Although we don't see a successor yet, speculation is inevitable about who might succeed Xi Jinping. He is 75 years old and cannot hold the leadership position forever."

Zhuang Jiaying of the National University of Singapore pointed out that Xi Jinping, as a highly centralized leader, may worry that appointing a successor in advance will dilute his power. "But if arrangements are not made early, the power vacuum will lead to greater instability. To solve this problem, the top leaders in power need to have enough confidence and willingness to take a step back, just like some of the top leaders of the CCP before. But not everyone can have such confidence."

However, the official meeting communiqué on October 29 did not show any arrangements that may be related to Xi Jinping’s successor.