US President Donald Trump's insistence on describing the war with Iran as a "simple matter" cannot be separated from the approaching midterm elections next November. He has presented himself as rejecting long wars, and needs to convince voters that the confrontation has not turned into a new quagmire, and that its high cost does not mean losing control over it.
That is why the phrases he has used recently perform two related functions: to consolidate the image of American victory and to reduce the political weight of the war in a difficult electoral race for Republicans.
However, this language hides an actual shift in the White House’s calculations. Trump has not abandoned his ultimate goals, most notably preventing Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon and ending its ability to exercise regional influence. However, he has become more sensitive to the timing and size of the use of force, after energy prices, human casualties, although limited, and ammunition depletion; Increasing internal stressors.
Contain until November
A number of Trump's senior aides, including his Vice President, J.D. Vance, and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, are pushing to keep the escalation under a controlled ceiling until the elections, while giving priority to sanctions, blockades, and economic pressure. Reuters quoted a White House official as saying that pressure on Iran continues, “but November is a priority.” Sources also talked about the possibility of a return to more severe strikes after the elections, without a final decision being taken yet.
These pressures do not mean that Trump is completely subject to partisan calculations, but they narrow the margin of his options. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that only a quarter of Americans see the war as worth its cost, while aides are trying to prevent it from becoming a dominant issue in the elections. Calling it a “limited military conflict,” despite its cost exceeding $37.5 billion and the killing of 18 American soldiers, reflects an attempt to remove its character of war and reduce its presence in the voters’ consciousness. However, the electoral calm remains fragile, as any Iranian strike that kills Americans, threatens vital installations in the region, or disrupts the Strait of Hormuz more broadly may force Trump to respond forcefully before the elections. While he wants to avoid an all-out war, at the same time he cannot afford to be accused of weakness or allow Tehran to appear as if it is imposing the rules of engagement. On the other hand, Tehran is aware of this dilemma, and its strategy appears to be based on “steadfastness and prolonging the confrontation,” hoping that rising fuel prices and declining support for the war will weaken the Republicans. But by continuing the attacks, it risks giving Trump the political justification he needs to move from containment to escalation.
After the elections is not without restrictions
After November, the pressure is likely to ease, which could give Trump greater freedom to target oil facilities, expand the blockade, or strike remaining Iranian missile and nuclear capabilities. His administration is already working on a post-war strategy, based on containing Iran regionally and forming a broader coalition to confront it. However, the outcome of the elections will also determine the limits of this freedom. If Republicans retain both chambers of Congress, Trump may more easily obtain the funding necessary to replenish munitions and continue operations. However, if one of the two chambers switches to the Democrats, Trump may face more severe oversight and battles over funding and war powers, even if he remains able to carry out limited strikes in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief of US forces.
Military restrictions will not end after the elections. Reports revealed a shortage of interceptor missiles and offensive ammunition, and disagreements within the administration regarding war estimates, reports denied by the White House and the Pentagon. Therefore, the post-election period may be a longer period of economic and military pressure, rather than a single decisive attack. Therefore, Trump appears to be subject to internal pressures at the timing of escalation, more than he is subject to them regarding the goals of the war. He wants to get through the November elections with the least amount of losses and high prices that Tehran is betting on, then restore freedom of movement. But any major bloody incident or Iranian and Israeli miscalculations may turn the postponed escalation into a confrontation that imposes its own timing.
Iran attacked the effort of the United States, Britain, France and Germany to issue a resolution from the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency referring its nuclear file to the Security Council, claiming that the move reveals “the complete failure of the snapback illusion,” in reference to the return of UN sanctions on Tehran last year.
The Iranian mission to international organizations in Vienna wrote on the “X” platform that Washington and the three European countries “intend once again to present a resolution against Iran in the Board of Governors, and to send the Iranian nuclear file to the Security Council in New York.”
The mission added: “It seems that they themselves do not even believe in (snapback) and returning the Iranian nuclear file to the Security Council’s agenda, which they have done previously and promoted on a large scale.”
She considered the move “evidence of the complete failure of the snapback illusion,” and described the new draft resolution as a “desperate attempt” that will not achieve any gains for the Western parties.
The mission pointed to the step taken by France, Britain, and Germany in August 2025 to activate the mechanism to re-impose United Nations sanctions under the 2015 nuclear agreement. Russia and China opposed the legality of the measure, but the UN sanctions were officially re-imposed in September 2025 after the Security Council failed to extend the exemptions.
Tehran maintains that Resolution 2231 issued by the Security Council has expired in accordance with its provisions, and rejects any attempt to revive previous resolutions or rely on mechanisms that it says have expired, considering them “devoid of legal validity and illegitimate.”
Project under negotiation
The quarterly meeting of the agency's Board of Governors begins next Monday in Vienna, amid a US-European move to mobilize support within the 35-nation council for the draft resolution.
Diplomats and a project reviewed by Reuters revealed that the United States, Britain, France and Germany are seeking to refer Iran to the Security Council for the first time in 20 years, due to what they consider to be non-compliance with their obligations related to nuclear non-proliferation.
Under Iran's obligations as a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, it must declare all nuclear materials and activities and allow IAEA inspectors to verify that they have not been diverted from peaceful uses.
The draft stipulates that the Director General of the Agency, Rafael Grossi, be requested to refer the resolution and previous resolutions related to Iran to all member states of the Agency, in addition to the Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly.
It also reiterates Tehran's call to “urgently address its non-compliance with the safeguards agreement,” and to take the steps that the agency and the Board of Governors deem necessary to enable Grossi to provide guarantees regarding the “correctness and completeness” of Iranian declarations.
The draft has not yet been formally presented, according to diplomats who said that negotiations on its wording are still ongoing, allowing Council members to propose amendments before putting the text to a vote next week.
Disagreement over inventory and inspection
On June 12, 2025, the Board of Governors had previously adopted a resolution concluding that Iran had violated its obligations related to safeguards and non-proliferation, due to its failure to fully cooperate with an investigation into traces of uranium found in undeclared sites.
The next day, Israel began bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, before the United States joined the attacks shortly after, destroying or causing serious damage to Iranian enrichment facilities.
Since those strikes, Tehran has not allowed IAEA inspectors to return to the sites that were bombed or to verify the remaining stock of enriched uranium.
Before the attacks, the agency estimated that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to the level of 60 percent, and considered the size of the stockpile at this level “an issue of grave concern.”
According to agency standards, this quantity, if enriched to a higher degree, is sufficient to produce fissile material for about ten nuclear weapons. Iran denies that it is seeking to build an atomic bomb.
Moving the file to the Security Council is unlikely to lead to concrete punitive measures, given that Russia and China have veto power.
The leaders of the Kurdistan Workers' Party in northern Iraq threatened to stop the ongoing "peace and democratic society process" with Turkey, which is primarily based on dissolving the party and disarming it, unless its government takes "democratic steps."
Jamil Bayik, a member of the Executive Council of the Union of Kurdistan Communities, the umbrella group for Kurdish organizations including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, said that the “process,” which the Turkish government calls “Operation Turkey Free of Terrorism,” will stop unless democratic steps are taken.
Bayik touched on the disarmament of the PKK as a condition for the transition to the democratic sphere and the integration of party members into Turkish society. He criticized the “National Solidarity and Social Integration Law,” which was approved by the Turkish Parliament on August 10, known as the “Framework Law,” saying that it is a beginning. But it is “incomplete”.
Criticism and threats
Pike explained that the justification for issuing the law was not clarified, and that simply saying that terrorism will end led to its weakening. If it had been stipulated that laying down weapons was linked to taking democratic steps, the purpose of the law would have been understood.
He added - in statements to the “Firat” news agency, which is close to the “PKK”, and reported by Turkish media on Saturday - that the language used in the law is very wrong, and that they have made clear, on every occasion, that this process is not limited to disarmament; Rather, it is important to stipulate the democratic steps that it requires. Because laying down arms will be in order to enter a democratic political field.
He pointed out that another important issue is the status of the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Ocalan, and senior party cadres. Because excluding the leaders and a large number of cadres participating in the process from the “Framework Law” is a serious problem, and this issue must also be resolved for those who will return to Türkiye.
The law, which was ratified by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on August 18, includes a postponement of sanctions, a cessation of prosecutions, and a conditional return of members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party who will give up their weapons. However, it excludes - according to information provided - 230 leaders who will not be allowed to return, and who may reside in a safe area in Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq.
In an explicit threat to stop the process, Bayik said: “If the process falters due to the absence of democratic steps, the responsibility falls on the Turkish government.” Democracy can provide a solution to the Kurdish issue, and with this law the government implicitly accepts these matters. “If this process does not advance through democratic steps, it will be hampered, and the government will be responsible for that.”
He pointed out that the decisive institution in resolving the Kurdish issue will - without a doubt - be Parliament, stressing the necessity of recognizing the existence of the Kurds, their language, culture, political will, and their rights to local self-government, through constitutional and legal amendments, and that a lasting peace cannot be achieved without that.
Implementation steps
Bayek's statements came at a time when work is continuing to form 4 subcommittees, which were decided to be established during the first meeting of the “National Follow-up and Coordination Council for Solidarity and Integration,” which is headed by Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and includes the Ministers of Justice, Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs, the Chief of Intelligence, the Secretary-General of the Presidency, and the Secretary-General of the National Security Council, on August 24.
Sources in the ruling Justice and Development Party said that the formation of the four committees (which are “judicial and legal coordination,” “follow-up and monitoring,” “social harmony and integration,” and “disarmament and strategic coordination”) will be completed and their work mechanisms will be determined during the current month of September, but they ruled out granting Ocalan any official status or direct membership in any of these committees.
She explained that Ocalan may contribute to the work of the “Disarmament and Strategic Coordination” Committee, in particular, given his important role in the disarmament phase, after repeated demands from the Kurdish side, and the head of the “National Movement” Party, an ally of the ruling party, to give him the role of general coordinator for politicization and integration.
At the same time, press reports revealed that the security mechanism established between Ankara, Baghdad, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah will work intensively, until the beginning of the new legislative term of the Turkish Parliament on October 1, to confirm whether the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has withdrawn from 72 points along the Turkish-Iraqi border, and whether the underground heavy weapons and ammunition depots have been reported to the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government. Where it will be verified and supported by Turkish intelligence.
According to the specific plan, the camps and caves extending to Mount Qandil, including those located in the areas of Matina, Zab, Avashin, Basian, and Haftanin, will be evacuated by October 1, and about 3,800 members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in 18 camps will hand over their weapons, and Iraqi border guard forces and Peshmerga forces will be deployed, especially in the areas near the Turkish border, and their administrations will cooperate. Baghdad and Erbil in these areas.
As for the areas designated for the delivery of weapons, the Turkish newspaper “Nafs” reported - citing unidentified sources - that the delivery will take place in the towns of Amadiyah and Kani Masi in Dohuk, the foot of Mount Qandil and the town of Koy Sanjak in Erbil, Rania district and the town of Sayyid Sadiq in Sulaymaniyah.
