
AI-generated summary
The Houthis, allied with Iran, have stepped up their attacks on Saudi Arabia and control strategic areas such as Mokha and islands in the Red Sea, threatening the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most important global shipping routes.
Reuters quoted two Iranian sources as saying that Tehran asked the Houthis last week to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the United States, and promised them more funding, weapons, and senior officers to help them do so.
While Iran describes the Houthis as an ally, it publicly denies providing any military guidance to them, saying they are “not agents” of it.
The same agency quoted a diplomat familiar with the region as saying that a number of senior Revolutionary Guard commanders had already traveled to Yemen to supervise the Houthi attacks directed against Saudi Arabia and its leadership, after weeks of discussions about the military strategy.
Iranian meetings with the Houthis?
A third source, an Iranian official, told the agency that Tehran held several meetings with its allies, including the Houthis, and that the move to control Mokha was a Houthi decision, not an Iranian one. However, the official said the move helped Iran by putting pressure on oil prices and hurting the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Based on information gleaned from intercepted communications and accounts from Houthi prisoners, Yemeni military sources said they believed the Iranian efforts were being led by Abd al-Rida Shahlai, a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guards. Iranian sources have not yet been able to confirm this, but were described by Shahlai, a member of the Quds Force, as having spent some time in Yemen in the past few years.
New weapons arrive for the Houthis
Iranian sources reported that the Revolutionary Guard is still able to transfer weapons and personnel to and from Yemen despite the air and sea blockade imposed on Houthi areas. The sources did not go into details about how they did this.
“If we look at their attack on the west coast, it is not something that was planned just last week or last month,” said Ahmed Naji, Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, describing the control of Mokha as a milestone in the war.
He added, "The development of the Houthis occurred primarily because of the new weapons they obtained, whether through the Iranians directly or through the various smuggling networks on which they rely," referring specifically to their use of drones in the most recent attack.
Riyadh was keen to avoid escalation with the Houthis
Two other Yemeni officials said that the Yemeni government requested more air support and other assistance from Saudi Arabia as the Houthis began advancing towards Mokha last week.
The two officials stated that the government was seeking to have Saudi Arabia launch an air campaign against Houthi targets in their strongholds, including Sanaa, and key strategic sites such as oil depots.
But the Kingdom limited itself to providing logistical and intelligence support and weapons, while launching limited air strikes that focused on the fighting fronts in the north in Al-Jawf and Ma’rib governorates, two areas that the government considers less important.
The two officials concluded that Riyadh was keen to avoid a major escalation with the Houthis for fear of pushing them to launch more severe air strikes with drones on Saudi territory.
Saudi officials have not yet responded to requests from Reuters to comment on Riyadh's military focus on the northern front and not the Red Sea coast and other key Houthi targets.
The head of the Yemeni Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, said during his meeting with the Egyptian ambassador to his country, Ihab Abu Saree, that “protecting the Yemeni coast and restoring the state’s control over its lands, ports, and territorial waters represent a common Yemeni, Egyptian, Arab, and international interest.”
Two sources in the Yemeni government stated that the Houthi group, allied with Iran, reached the Greater and Lesser islands of Zaqar and Hanish in the southern Red Sea off the coast of Eritrea after taking control of the coastal city of Mocha in a strategic development that may threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the most important global shipping routes.
According to the official news agency "Saba", Al-Alimi warned that "the recent escalation by the Houthi militias, especially on the western coast of Taiz Governorate, is linked to Iranian efforts to give the militias the ability to influence Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea."
He added, "This would allow the pressures facing Tehran to be transformed into a cost for the region, trade, and global markets."
Al-Alimi pointed out that "the Houthis are seeking to change the military equation on the west coast," warning that any threat to Bab al-Mandab, as a vital international corridor, will directly affect the security of the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the global trade movement.
Houthis: Navigation is safe and regular
For their part, the Houthis said that navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab remain safe and regular for all companies except for the previous ban on Saudi ships.
In a post on the
“If the aggression against Yemen stops and the siege is lifted, the current operations will stop.”
Two senior Iranian sources and three other people familiar with the matter said: Iran used a barter-like arrangement to circumvent sanctions imposed on its oil sales and purchase billions of dollars worth of goods from China, including military equipment.
The sources, who requested to remain anonymous, said that the secret trade mechanism, which allowed the exchange of Iranian oil with funds designated to finance Chinese imports, provided Tehran with a financial lifeline in the past few years, at a time when the United States escalated economic and military pressure on Iran because of its nuclear program.
She added that this mechanism also helped China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, to continue purchasing Iranian oil at reduced prices, while protecting banks and companies that export goods to the Islamic Republic from international scrutiny or sanctions.
Decreased ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
On the other hand, preliminary data tracking ship movement showed that the number of ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, Wednesday, fell to seven ships, compared to 12 ships the previous day. These levels were also below the 10-day average of 14 ships.
According to the data available today, Thursday (September 10, 2026), four ships left and three ships entered. Some ships sail through the waterway with their transmitters and receivers turned off, and therefore these ships are not included in the census operations.
One of the ships that left was the very large crude oil tanker (Finland Prosperity), which was loaded with nearly two million barrels of crude oil.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Houthis will continue to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia and ships in the Red Sea with increasing Iranian support
Likely · Within weeks
Saudi Arabia may increase its air support to the Yemeni government if the Houthis continue to advance towards strategic areas
Possible · Within months

Iran asked the Houthis to escalate their attacks on Saudi Arabia, a close ally of the United States, and promised them more funding, weapons and senior officers, while Iran denies providing military guidance to the Houthis and describes them as not its agents, according to Iranian sources and regional diplomats quoted by Reuters.

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