自由时报1 hour agoBusiness1 min readChina

Gold’s next stop after rally? "At this time" broke through 5,000 US dollars

Quick Look

Gold prices rose 0.7% on Tuesday, with spot prices at $4,168.33 an ounce and futures at $4,187.10 an ounce.
A pause in the rise in U.S. bond yields and a weak U.S. dollar supported gold prices, as investors awaited minutes from the Fed's September meeting to assess opportunities for interest rate hikes.
Analysts at TD Securities expect gold prices to exceed $5,000 an ounce in 2027, citing increased ETF buying and continued demand from discretionary investors.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The market had previously lowered its expectations for an interest rate hike in September due to lower-than-expected growth in non-farm payroll employment, causing U.S. bond yields to fall. At the same time, rising French government debt levels and expanding budget deficits have caused uneasiness in the European sovereign debt market.

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Gold prices rose on Tuesday (6th). (Reuters photo)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] The rise in U.S. bond yields is paused and supported by a weak U.S. dollar. Investors are waiting for the upcoming September meeting minutes to judge future monetary policy clues. Gold prices rose on Tuesday (6th), while TD Securities analysts expect gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce in 2027, and explained why.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,168.33 an ounce.

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U.S. gold futures rose 0.7% to $4,187.10 an ounce.

"Reuters" reported that American Gold Exchange market analyst Jim Wyckoff said: "The turmoil in the French bond market and the rising market doubts about the U.S. Treasury market have caused some safe-haven demand to enter the gold market."

Investors continue to be uneasy about rising government debt levels and expanding budget deficits in some euro zone countries, especially France, pushing sovereign bond yields higher.

The market is currently awaiting the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday to assess the possibility of further interest rate hikes this year. The market has revised down its bets on an interest rate hike this month as the previously announced non-farm payrolls growth in September was lower than expected.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders currently see only a 22% chance of the Fed raising interest rates this month, but still see an 84% chance of a rate hike in December.

At the same time, oil prices fell, Middle East crude oil exports remained resilient, and the Group of Seven major industrial countries (G7) urgently released oil reserves, alleviating market concerns about supply.

Analysts at TD Securities said: "Despite short-term headwinds, continued increase in ETF buying and demand from discretionary investors still provide support for gold. We maintain our original view that gold prices will exceed US$5,000 per ounce in 2027."

Other precious metals trading:

Spot silver rose 0.8% to $61.56 an ounce.

Spot platinum fell 1% to $1,704.85 an ounce.

Spot palladium was flat at $1,172.80 an ounce.

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Gold price to top $5,000 an ounce by 2027
Possible · Within years

Open Questions

Will the Fed really raise interest rates in November or December?
Will the debt problems of France and other European countries worsen?
Will gold prices continue to be driven by ETF buying until 2027?