The former Minister of Irrigation warns of the impact of the decline in the Blue Nile flood on Egypt and Sudan

Abu Zeid said that the expected scenarios in the coming years will be greatly affected by the size of the floods that will reach the Blue Nile, warning that the decrease in flood rates may put Egypt and Sudan facing greater challenges regarding water flows.

He explained that the decrease in water revenues may give Ethiopia greater ability to determine the quantities of water that are discharged to operate the turbines of the Renaissance Dam, compared to the quantities that can be kept inside the dam’s reservoir, which may be reflected in the water flows heading to the two downstream countries.

The former Minister of Irrigation stressed that dealing with this scenario should not begin after a water crisis occurs, but rather requires setting clear rules in advance that determine the mechanisms for operating the dam and water behavior during years of low, medium, and high flood.

Abu Zeid said that the existence of an agreement and a specific program to deal with various hydrological conditions would set advance rules for water management, instead of waiting until flood rates decrease and then searching for mechanisms for action.

These statements come at a time when the Renaissance Dam negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia have reached a dead end, according to previous statements by the Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sweilem, who said that Cairo stopped the negotiations due to what he described as Ethiopian evasion and lack of commitment.

The main dispute between Cairo and Addis Ababa is related to the rules for filling and operating the Renaissance Dam, and the mechanisms for dealing with years of drought and extended drought, in addition to the need for clear arrangements for data exchange and coordination regarding water flows. These are issues that successive rounds of negotiations have not succeeded in resolving with a binding agreement.

Abu Zeid pointed out that Egypt is trying, through communication with friendly countries, to influence Ethiopia to push it towards reaching a solution to the dam crisis, but he considered that repeated attempts at negotiation collide with what he described as “Ethiopian intransigence,” which makes it more difficult to reach understandings regarding operating rules and dealing with different water conditions.

The complexities of the file increase, according to Abu Zeid, with Ethiopia announcing its intention to build three new dams on the Blue Nile, projects that brought Egyptian and Sudanese concerns about the future of water flows back to the forefront.

This year, Ethiopia announced plans to revive three dam projects on the Blue Nile: Karadubi, Mandaya, and Beko Apo, as part of its plans to expand hydroelectric power production. Reports indicate that the projects are located at the top of the Renaissance Dam, which raised concerns in the two downstream countries about their potential effects on the management of water flows.

Abu Zeid believes that protecting Egyptian water rights requires action before exceptional circumstances occur, especially since the Blue Nile’s water revenue changes from year to year depending on hydrological conditions, making low flood years one of the most sensitive scenarios for the two downstream countries.

Egypt relies mainly on the waters of the Nile to meet its water needs, and Cairo says that its water rights are based on historical agreements and the rules of international law, while Ethiopia affirms its right to exploit its water resources to generate energy and achieve development.