Two months to go before the 9-in-1 election. Scholars: Voter rate may drop, and polling is key

The nine-in-one local elections have entered the final two months of decisive battles.

As the nine-in-one local elections enter the final two months, Zhang Yuanxiang, an adjunct assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Soochow University, has concluded that amid fierce fighting between the government and the opposition, voters in the middle are apathetic towards politics and the overall turnout rate should decline. Under this circumstance, urging the "voting intention of supporters" has become the key to the final outcome of the election. Only by stabilizing the voting rate of the basic base can we have the opportunity to win the support of middle voters through political opinions and win the final election.

Zhang Yuanxiang pointed out that local elections are based on the "political map" and "candidate conditions." More than 80% of the outcome has been decided when the two parties complete candidate nominations. Only in the fifth-wave constituencies can "issue attack and defense" play a key role. However, this year's election situation is very cold. With the exception of Taipei City, almost all "election issues" cannot be fought.

Zhang Yuanxiang said that judging from the long-term polling trends, most constituency polls have not changed much. Especially when the government and the opposition are fiercely fighting, the middle voters are apathetic towards politics, and the overall turnout rate should decline. Under this circumstance, urging the "voting intention of supporters" has become the key to the final outcome of the election. Only by stabilizing the voting rate of the basic base can we have the opportunity to win the support of middle voters through political opinions and win the final election.

Zhang Yuanxiang believes that the most anticipated hen of the Blue Camp, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan, is currently focused on stabilizing the Taipei City election. It remains to be seen whether there will be spillover effects in the future. The recent "ocean current" will certainly help to ignite the enthusiasm of the Green Camp fundamentalists, but for the May 5th Wave and constituencies where "Blue is greater than Green", the "Ocean Current" will also arouse the unity of Blue and White supporters. The midterm election is also a vote of confidence in the Lai Ching-te government. It will not only affect the momentum of the 2028 presidential election, but also affect the future interaction between the government and the opposition and the redistribution of power.